November 1, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields are 8-13 basis points lower across the curve this morning, more than reversing yesterday’s sell-off. The theme for this morning is the general “slowing global economy” that has emerged in recent weeks, but poor liquidity continues to exacerbate moves in either direction. As Bloomberg highlights in an article this morning, Fed Chair Powell’s preferred yield curve metric for assessing market-based recession pricing, the spread between the 3-month Treasury bill rate and the 18-month forward 3-month Treasury bill rate, is getting closer to inverting for the first time since March 2020. Later this morning, the September JOLTS report will be released, and job openings are expected to drop for a second consecutive month to 9.75 million. The ratio of job openings to total unemployed persons is a metric that Powell has been highlighting since March as a sign of an unhealthy labor market, and job openings dipped below 11 million in August for the first time in 9 months.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
11/1/2022	S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI	49.9	—	49.9	—
11/1/2022	JOLTS Job Openings	9750k	—	10053k	—
11/1/2022	Construction Spending MoM	-0.60%	—	-0.70%	—
11/1/2022	ISM Manufacturing	50	—	50.9	—
11/1/2022	ISM Prices Paid	53	—	51.7	—
11/1/2022	ISM New Orders	—	—	47.1	—
11/1/2022	ISM Employment	—	—	48.7	—
11/1/2022	Wards Total Vehicle Sales	14.50m	—	13.49m	—
11/2/2022	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	-1.70%	—
11/2/2022	ADP Employment Change	180k	—	208k	—
11/2/2022	FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)	3.75%	—	3.00%	—
11/2/2022	FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)	4.00%	—	3.25%	—
11/2/2022	Interest on Reserve Balances Rate	3.90%	—	3.15%	—
11/3/2022	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	—	67.60%	—
11/3/2022	Trade Balance	-$72.3b	—	-$67.4b	—
11/3/2022	Nonfarm Productivity	0.50%	—	-4.10%	—
11/3/2022	Unit Labor Costs	4.00%	—	10.20%	—
11/3/2022	Initial Jobless Claims	220k	—	217k	—
11/3/2022	Continuing Claims	1450k	—	1438k	—
11/3/2022	S&P Global US Services PMI	46.6	—	46.6	—
11/3/2022	S&P Global US Composite PMI	47.3	—	47.3	—
11/3/2022	Factory Orders	0.30%	—	0.00%	—
11/3/2022	Factory Orders Ex Trans	—	—	0.20%	—
11/3/2022	Durable Goods Orders	0.40%	—	0.40%	—
11/3/2022	Durables Ex Transportation	-0.50%	—	-0.50%	—
11/3/2022	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	—	—	-0.70%	—
11/3/2022	ISM Services Index	55.4	—	56.7	—
11/3/2022	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	—	-0.50%	—
11/4/2022	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	—	11k	—
11/4/2022	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	191k	—	263k	—
11/4/2022	Change in Private Payrolls	195k	—	288k	—
11/4/2022	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	14k	—	22k	—
11/4/2022	Unemployment Rate	3.60%	—	3.50%	—
11/4/2022	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	0.30%	—	0.30%	—
11/4/2022	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	4.70%	—	5.00%	—
11/4/2022	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.5	—	34.5	—
11/4/2022	Labor Force Participation Rate	62.30%	—	62.30%	—
11/4/2022	Underemployment Rate	—	—	6.70%	—
11/7/2022	Consumer Credit	$33.000b	—	$32.241b	—
11/8/2022	NFIB Small Business Optimism	—	—	92.1	—

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