November 1, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields are 8-13 basis points lower across the curve this morning, more than reversing yesterday’s sell-off. The theme for this morning is the general “slowing global economy” that has emerged in recent weeks, but poor liquidity continues to exacerbate moves in either direction.  As Bloomberg highlights in an article this morning, Fed Chair Powell’s preferred yield curve metric for assessing market-based recession pricing, the spread between the 3-month Treasury bill rate and the 18-month forward 3-month Treasury bill rate, is getting closer to inverting for the first time since March 2020. Later this morning, the September JOLTS report will be released, and job openings are expected to drop for a second consecutive month to 9.75 million. The ratio of job openings to total unemployed persons is a metric that Powell has been highlighting since March as a sign of an unhealthy labor market, and job openings dipped below 11 million in August for the first time in 9 months.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

11/1/2022S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI49.949.9
11/1/2022JOLTS Job Openings9750k10053k
11/1/2022Construction Spending MoM-0.60%-0.70%
11/1/2022ISM Manufacturing5050.9
11/1/2022ISM Prices Paid5351.7
11/1/2022ISM New Orders47.1
11/1/2022ISM Employment48.7
11/1/2022Wards Total Vehicle Sales14.50m13.49m
11/2/2022MBA Mortgage Applications-1.70%
11/2/2022ADP Employment Change180k208k
11/2/2022FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)3.75%3.00%
11/2/2022FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)4.00%3.25%
11/2/2022Interest on Reserve Balances Rate3.90%3.15%
11/3/2022Challenger Job Cuts YoY67.60%
11/3/2022Trade Balance-$72.3b-$67.4b
11/3/2022Nonfarm Productivity0.50%-4.10%
11/3/2022Unit Labor Costs4.00%10.20%
11/3/2022Initial Jobless Claims220k217k
11/3/2022Continuing Claims1450k1438k
11/3/2022S&P Global US Services PMI46.646.6
11/3/2022S&P Global US Composite PMI47.347.3
11/3/2022Factory Orders0.30%0.00%
11/3/2022Factory Orders Ex Trans0.20%
11/3/2022Durable Goods Orders0.40%0.40%
11/3/2022Durables Ex Transportation-0.50%-0.50%
11/3/2022Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.70%
11/3/2022ISM Services Index55.456.7
11/3/2022Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-0.50%
11/4/2022Two-Month Payroll Net Revision11k
11/4/2022Change in Nonfarm Payrolls191k263k
11/4/2022Change in Private Payrolls195k288k
11/4/2022Change in Manufact. Payrolls14k22k
11/4/2022Unemployment Rate3.60%3.50%
11/4/2022Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.30%
11/4/2022Average Hourly Earnings YoY4.70%5.00%
11/4/2022Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.534.5
11/4/2022Labor Force Participation Rate62.30%62.30%
11/4/2022Underemployment Rate6.70%
11/7/2022Consumer Credit$33.000b$32.241b
11/8/2022NFIB Small Business Optimism92.1

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