November 10, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields are modestly higher this morning following yesterday’s strong sell-off that steepened the yield curve by nearly 10 basis points. With Pfizer’s vaccine announcement, a reflation trade ensued by more speculative investors on the premise that the Covid recovery would accelerate much sooner than markets had been expecting. At the same time, one could reasonably say that the headline reached a market very eager for any such hints that normality may be on the visible horizon. For the fixed income market, it will be important to hear the Fed’s take on the news. Fed Chair Powell has made it clear that the Fed’s outlook (and policy bias) is tied to the Covid timeline and that the central bank will keep policy very accommodative until the recovery is well under way. Fed funds futures and OIS are still pricing the policy rate unchanged through 2023, aligned with the Fed’s current guidance. That said, momentum is a strong force, and Covid remains the biggest driver of the economic outlook, both positive and negative.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
11/10/20 NFIB Small Business Optimism 104.1 104 104 —
11/10/20 Mortgage Delinquencies — — 8.22% —
11/10/20 MBA Mortgage Foreclosures — — 0.68% —
11/10/20 JOLTS Job Openings 6500 — 6493 —
11/11/20 MBA Mortgage Applications — — 3.80% —
11/12/20 CPI MoM 0.10% — 0.20% —
11/12/20 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% — 0.20% —
11/12/20 CPI YoY 1.30% — 1.40% —
11/12/20 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 1.70% — 1.70% —
11/12/20 CPI Index NSA 260.474 — 260.28 —
11/12/20 CPI Core Index SA 269.576 — 269.264 —
11/12/20 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY — — 4.10% 4.40%
11/12/20 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY — — 3.30% 3.20%
11/12/20 Initial Jobless Claims 732k — 751k —
11/12/20 Continuing Claims 6900k — 7285k —
11/12/20 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort — — 47.5 —
11/12/20 Monthly Budget Statement -$275.0b — -$124.6b —
11/13/20 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.20% — 0.40% —
11/13/20 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% — 0.40% —
11/13/20 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.20% — 0.40% —
11/13/20 PPI Final Demand YoY 0.40% — 0.40% —
11/13/20 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 1.20% — 1.20% —
11/13/20 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 0.90% — 0.70% —
11/13/20 U. of Mich. Sentiment 82 — 81.8 —
11/13/20 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 90 — 85.9 —
11/13/20 U. of Mich. Expectations 78.2 — 79.2 —
11/13/20 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation — — 2.60% —
11/13/20 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation — — 2.40% —
11/13/20 Bloomberg Nov. United States Economic Survey

 

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