November 10, 2021 Headlines

Yields are 6-7 basis points higher on the front-end of the Treasury curve following the release of the October CPI report. The core index rose 0.6% m/m, well above the 0.4% expected rate according to Bloomberg. Core CPI rose 4.6% y/y in October, the highest since June 1991 and up from 4% the prior month. This report reinforces market speculation that the Fed will have to act sooner than it expects with rate hikes to suppress inflation pressures, even if transitory. In other news, a Nikkei article says that easing microchip shortages is allowing Toyota, Nissan, and GM increase vehicle production, but labor shortages are creating a potential roadblock to getting production back online.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
11/09/21NFIB Small Business Optimism99.598.299.1
11/09/21PPI Final Demand MoM0.60%0.60%0.50%
11/09/21PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.50%0.40%0.20%
11/09/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%0.40%0.10%
11/09/21PPI Final Demand YoY8.60%8.60%8.60%
11/09/21PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY6.80%6.80%6.80%
11/09/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY6.20%6.20%5.90%
11/10/21MBA Mortgage Applications5.50%-3.30%
11/10/21Initial Jobless Claims260k267k269k271k
11/10/21Continuing Claims2050k2160k2105k2101k
11/10/21CPI MoM0.60%0.90%0.40%
11/10/21CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.40%0.60%0.20%
11/10/21CPI YoY5.90%6.20%5.40%
11/10/21CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY4.30%4.60%4.00%
11/10/21CPI Index NSA275.808276.589274.31
11/10/21CPI Core Index SA280.991281.695280.017
11/10/21Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-1.20%-0.80%
11/10/21Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-1.60%-0.80%
11/10/21Langer Consumer Comfort49.2
11/10/21Mortgage Delinquencies5.47%
11/10/21MBA Mortgage Foreclosures0.51%
11/10/21Wholesale Inventories MoM1.10%1.10%
11/10/21Wholesale Trade Sales MoM1.00%-1.10%
11/10/21Monthly Budget Statement-$179.0b-$61.5b
11/12/21Bloomberg Nov. United States Economic Survey
11/12/21JOLTS Job Openings10300k10439k
11/12/21U. of Mich. Sentiment72.571.7
11/12/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions77.277.7
11/12/21U. of Mich. Expectations68.867.9
11/12/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.90%4.80%
11/12/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.90%

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