November 12, 2020 Headlines

Treasury prices are higher this morning as market focus shifts back to rising Covid cases in the U.S. Major European equity indices are down more than 1% on the day, and U.S. futures are 30-75 basis points (bps) lower ahead of the open. The October CPI report came in below expectations, with headline inflation unchanged on the month. Core CPI was also flat versus September versus expectations of a 0.2% gain, and the biggest driver of downside surprise in October was a 0.4% monthly decline in medical care prices, the biggest decline for that category in 50 years (more likely an anomaly). On a year-over-year basis, headline CPI fell 20 bps in October to 1.2%, and core CPI fell 10 bps to 1.6%.  Fed Chair Powell will be participating in a European Central Bank forum later this morning, joined by the heads of the ECB and Bank of England. This will be the first time Powell has spoken since Monday’s big vaccine announcement.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

11/10/20NFIB Small Business Optimism104.1104104
11/10/20Mortgage Delinquencies7.65%8.22%
11/10/20MBA Mortgage Foreclosures0.59%0.68%
11/10/20JOLTS Job Openings6500643664936352
11/11/20MBA Mortgage Applications-0.50%3.80%
11/12/20CPI MoM0.10%0.00%0.20%
11/12/20CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.00%0.20%
11/12/20CPI YoY1.30%1.20%1.40%
11/12/20CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.70%1.60%1.70%
11/12/20CPI Index NSA260.475260.388260.28
11/12/20CPI Core Index SA269.59269.296269.264
11/12/20Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY3.20%3.30%3.20%
11/12/20Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY4.40%4.10%4.40%
11/12/20Initial Jobless Claims731k709k751k757k
11/12/20Continuing Claims6825k6786k7285k7222k
11/12/20Bloomberg Consumer Comfort47.5
11/12/20Monthly Budget Statement-$275.0b-$124.6b
11/13/20PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%0.40%
11/13/20PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.40%
11/13/20PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.40%
11/13/20PPI Final Demand YoY0.40%0.40%
11/13/20PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.20%1.20%
11/13/20PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY0.90%0.70%
11/13/20U. of Mich. Sentiment8281.8
11/13/20U. of Mich. Current Conditions88.385.9
11/13/20U. of Mich. Expectations79.179.2
11/13/20U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.60%
11/13/20U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.40%
11/13/20Bloomberg Nov. United States Economic Survey


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