The Treasury curve is bull flattening this morning with no major macro events driving activity.   Equities are weaker this morning (S&P 500 futures -7 points), with tax reform skepticism a likely catalyst. The House and Senate bills have substantial differences, particularly as it relates to deductions for state/local taxes and mortgage interest. The House could have its final version by Thursday, but the reconciliation process with the Senate will likely be a long and tedious process. This week’s economic calendar is headlined by October CPI and retail sales on Wednesday. We will also hear from several Fed leaders this week, beginning with Chales Evans and Janet Yellen tomorrow. Yellen will actually be participating on a monetary policy panel with the heads of the European Central Bank (Draghi), Bank of Japan (Kuroda), and Bank of England (Carney).

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
11/13/2017Monthly Budget Statement-$59.0b-$45.8b
11/14/2017NFIB Small Business Optimism104103
11/14/2017PPI Final Demand MoM0.10%0.40%
11/14/2017PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.40%
11/14/2017PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.20%
11/14/2017PPI Final Demand YoY2.40%2.60%
11/14/2017PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.30%2.20%
11/14/2017PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.10%
11/15/2017MBA Mortgage Applications0.00%
11/15/2017CPI MoM0.10%0.50%
11/15/2017CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.10%
11/15/2017CPI YoY2.00%2.20%
11/15/2017CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.70%1.70%
11/15/2017CPI Core Index SA252.86
11/15/2017CPI Index NSA246.606246.819
11/15/2017Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.60%
11/15/2017Empire Manufacturing2530.2
11/15/2017Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY0.70%0.60%
11/15/2017Retail Sales Advance MoM0.00%1.60%
11/15/2017Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.20%1.00%
11/15/2017Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%0.50%
11/15/2017Retail Sales Control Group0.30%0.40%
11/15/2017Business Inventories0.00%0.70%
11/15/2017Total Net TIC Flows$125.0b
11/15/2017Net Long-term TIC Flows$67.2b
11/16/2017Initial Jobless Claims235k239k
11/16/2017Continuing Claims1905k1901k
11/16/2017Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook24.127.9
11/16/2017Import Price Index MoM0.30%0.70%
11/16/2017Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.20%0.30%
11/16/2017Import Price Index YoY2.50%2.70%
11/16/2017Export Price Index MoM0.40%0.80%
11/16/2017Export Price Index YoY2.90%
11/16/2017Industrial Production MoM0.50%0.30%
11/16/2017Capacity Utilization76.30%76.00%
11/16/2017Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.60%0.10%
11/16/2017Bloomberg Consumer Comfort51.5
11/16/2017Bloomberg Economic Expectations47.5
11/16/2017NAHB Housing Market Index6768
11/16/2017MBA Mortgage Foreclosures1.29%
11/16/2017Mortgage Delinquencies4.24%
11/17/2017Housing Starts1190k1127k
11/17/2017Housing Starts MoM5.60%-4.70%
11/17/2017Building Permits1250k1215k1225k
11/17/2017Building Permits MoM2.00%-4.50%-3.70%
11/17/2017Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity2123
11/20/2017Leading Index0.80%-0.20%