The Treasury curve is lower and flatter this morning with the 10-year down 2 bps while the front-end is up around 3 bps. Equity futures are pointing to a higher open in response to news that China’s Vice Premier Liu would be making a trip to the US in order to lay the ground work for the trade talks that will take place later this month at the G20 in Argentina. Oil prices fell for the 12th straight day, a record losing streak, after President Trump criticized Saudi Arabia’s plan to scale back output. The economic calendar is light this morning, but tomorrow the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the CPI reading for September with the market expecting a month over month increase of 0.3%.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group


11/13NFIB Small Business Optimism108107.4107.9
11/13Monthly Budget Statement-$100.0b-$63.2b
11/14MBA Mortgage Applications-4.00%
11/14CPI MoM0.30%0.10%
11/14CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.10%
11/14CPI YoY2.50%2.30%
11/14CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.20%2.20%
11/14CPI Index NSA252.8252.439
11/14CPI Core Index SA258.922258.441
11/14Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY1.10%
11/14Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY0.50%
11/15Empire Manufacturing2021.1
11/15Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook2022.2
11/15Retail Sales Advance MoM0.50%0.10%
11/15Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.50%-0.10%
11/15Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%0.00%
11/15Retail Sales Control Group0.40%0.50%
11/15Import Price Index MoM0.10%0.50%
11/15Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.00%0.00%
11/15Import Price Index YoY3.30%3.50%
11/15Export Price Index MoM0.10%0.00%
11/15Export Price Index YoY2.70%
11/15Initial Jobless Claims213k214k
11/15Continuing Claims1625k1623k
11/15Bloomberg Consumer Comfort61.3
11/15Business Inventories0.30%0.50%
11/16Industrial Production MoM0.20%0.30%
11/16Capacity Utilization78.20%78.10%
11/16Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.20%0.20%
11/16Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity118
11/16Total Net TIC Flows$108.2b
11/16Net Long-term TIC Flows$131.8b