November 14, 2019 Headlines

Negative trade headlines are pressuring equities and Treasury yields lower this morning. The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday afternoon that U.S. and Chinese officials have hit a “snag” over agricultural purchases. President Trump has said that China agreed to purchase up to $50 billion of soybeans, pork, and other products from the U.S. on an annual basis, but China is pushing back on any specific notional amount. Reports also suggest that Chinese officials remain adamant that tariff cancellations must be part of any phase-one deal. At this point, there hasn’t been any reported progress on Chinese structural reforms as it relates to forced technology transfer and intellectual property theft, which is considered by many the most important component of any trade deal with China.

In other news, Fed Chair Powell’s testimony before Congress yesterday had a more dovish tone. Powell acknowledged that the economy can maintain lower levels of unemployment than the previously thought without significant inflationary implications. This could be taken as an admission that the Fed may have gone a little too far with the last round of rate hikes, and they appear to be more concerned with disinflation risks in the current environment. Powell was asked whether he meant to signal during the October 30 press conference that rate policy was on hold through 2020. “I wouldn’t say that at all,” Powell responded. He then reiterated that current policy is likely to remain appropriate as long as the economy stays on track.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
11/12/2019NFIB Small Business Optimism102102.4101.8
11/13/2019MBA Mortgage Applications9.60%-0.10%
11/13/2019CPI MoM0.30%0.40%0.00%
11/13/2019CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%0.10%
11/13/2019CPI YoY1.70%1.80%1.70%
11/13/2019CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.40%2.30%2.40%
11/13/2019CPI Core Index SA265.074265.011264.595
11/13/2019CPI Index NSA257.227257.346256.759
11/13/2019Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.90%0.90%1.00%
11/13/2019Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY1.20%1.20%1.30%
11/13/2019Monthly Budget Statement-$130.0b-$134.5b-$100.5b
11/14/2019PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%0.40%-0.30%
11/14/2019PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.30%-0.30%
11/14/2019PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.10%0.00%
11/14/2019PPI Final Demand YoY0.90%1.10%1.40%
11/14/2019PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.50%1.60%2.00%
11/14/2019PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY1.50%1.70%
11/14/2019Initial Jobless Claims215k225k211k
11/14/2019Continuing Claims1683k1683k1689k1693k
11/14/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort5859.1
11/14/2019Mortgage Delinquencies3.97%4.53%
11/14/2019MBA Mortgage Foreclosures0.84%0.90%
11/15/2019Empire Manufacturing64
11/15/2019Import Price Index MoM-0.20%0.20%
11/15/2019Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.00%-0.10%
11/15/2019Import Price Index YoY-2.20%-1.60%
11/15/2019Export Price Index MoM-0.10%-0.20%
11/15/2019Export Price Index YoY-1.60%
11/15/2019Retail Sales Advance MoM0.20%-0.30%
11/15/2019Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%-0.10%
11/15/2019Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%0.00%
11/15/2019Retail Sales Control Group0.30%0.00%
11/15/2019Industrial Production MoM-0.40%-0.40%
11/15/2019Manufacturing (SIC) Production-0.70%-0.50%
11/15/2019Capacity Utilization77.00%77.50%
11/15/2019Business Inventories0.10%0.00%

 

 

 

 

 

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