November 14, 2022 Headlines

Treasuries are giving back some of Thursday’s historic rally (biggest one-day yield decline since March 2009) following more hawkish Fedspeak. Front-end yields are up 5-7 basis points after Fed Governor Waller reiterated their commitment to get inflation down. “We’ve still got a ways to go,” said Waller. “This isn’t ending in the next meeting or two.” Still, speculation that inflation is poised to fall in 2023 continues to grow. Goldman Sachs is the first major bank to call for a significant easing of inflation risks next year due to reduced price pressures from factors such as easing supply-side constraints, shelter costs, and wage inflation. Separately, a Wall Street Journal article notes that the largest retailers, including Walmart, Target, and Amazon, are now pushing back on price increases by suppliers and, in some cases, cancelling orders or asking for discounts. This week’s economic calendar includes multiple housing market metrics, October producer prices, and October retail sales. Several Fed leaders are scheduled to speak this week, including Vice Chair Brainard and New York Fed President John Williams later today.  

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
11/15/2022 Empire Manufacturing -6 -9.1
11/15/2022 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.40% 0.40%
11/15/2022 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.30% 0.30%
11/15/2022 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.20% 0.40%
11/15/2022 PPI Final Demand YoY 8.40% 8.50%
11/15/2022 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 7.20% 7.20%
11/15/2022 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 5.50% 5.60%
11/15/2022 Bloomberg Nov. United States Economic Survey
11/16/2022 MBA Mortgage Applications -0.10%
11/16/2022 Retail Sales Advance MoM 1.00% 0.00%
11/16/2022 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.50% 0.10%
11/16/2022 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.20% 0.30%
11/16/2022 Retail Sales Control Group 0.30% 0.40%
11/16/2022 Import Price Index MoM -0.40% -1.20%
11/16/2022 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM -0.80% -0.50%
11/16/2022 Import Price Index YoY 4.30% 6.00%
11/16/2022 Export Price Index MoM -0.20% -0.80%
11/16/2022 Export Price Index YoY 9.50%
11/16/2022 Industrial Production MoM 0.10% 0.40%
11/16/2022 Capacity Utilization 80.40% 80.30%
11/16/2022 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 0.20% 0.40%
11/16/2022 Business Inventories 0.50% 0.80%
11/16/2022 NAHB Housing Market Index 36 38
11/16/2022 Net Long-term TIC Flows $197.9b
11/16/2022 Total Net TIC Flows $275.6b
11/17/2022 Housing Starts 1412k 1439k
11/17/2022 Building Permits 1515k 1564k
11/17/2022 Housing Starts MoM -1.90% -8.10%
11/17/2022 Building Permits MoM -3.10% 1.40%
11/17/2022 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook -6 -8.7
11/17/2022 Initial Jobless Claims 222k 225k
11/17/2022 Continuing Claims 1509k 1493k
11/17/2022 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity -7 -7
11/18/2022 Existing Home Sales 4.37m 4.71m
11/18/2022 Existing Home Sales MoM -7.20% -1.50%
11/18/2022 Leading Index -0.40% -0.40%
11/21/2022 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 0.1

 

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