November 14, 2022 Headlines

Treasuries are giving back some of Thursday’s historic rally (biggest one-day yield decline since March 2009) following more hawkish Fedspeak. Front-end yields are up 5-7 basis points after Fed Governor Waller reiterated their commitment to get inflation down. “We’ve still got a ways to go,” said Waller. “This isn’t ending in the next meeting or two.” Still, speculation that inflation is poised to fall in 2023 continues to grow. Goldman Sachs is the first major bank to call for a significant easing of inflation risks next year due to reduced price pressures from factors such as easing supply-side constraints, shelter costs, and wage inflation. Separately, a Wall Street Journal article notes that the largest retailers, including Walmart, Target, and Amazon, are now pushing back on price increases by suppliers and, in some cases, cancelling orders or asking for discounts. This week’s economic calendar includes multiple housing market metrics, October producer prices, and October retail sales. Several Fed leaders are scheduled to speak this week, including Vice Chair Brainard and New York Fed President John Williams later today.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
11/15/2022	Empire Manufacturing	-6	—	-9.1	—
11/15/2022	PPI Final Demand MoM	0.40%	—	0.40%	—
11/15/2022	PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.30%	—	0.30%	—
11/15/2022	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM	0.20%	—	0.40%	—
11/15/2022	PPI Final Demand YoY	8.40%	—	8.50%	—
11/15/2022	PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	7.20%	—	7.20%	—
11/15/2022	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY	5.50%	—	5.60%	—
11/15/2022	Bloomberg Nov. United States Economic Survey
11/16/2022	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	-0.10%	—
11/16/2022	Retail Sales Advance MoM	1.00%	—	0.00%	—
11/16/2022	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	0.50%	—	0.10%	—
11/16/2022	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas	0.20%	—	0.30%	—
11/16/2022	Retail Sales Control Group	0.30%	—	0.40%	—
11/16/2022	Import Price Index MoM	-0.40%	—	-1.20%	—
11/16/2022	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	-0.80%	—	-0.50%	—
11/16/2022	Import Price Index YoY	4.30%	—	6.00%	—
11/16/2022	Export Price Index MoM	-0.20%	—	-0.80%	—
11/16/2022	Export Price Index YoY	—	—	9.50%	—
11/16/2022	Industrial Production MoM	0.10%	—	0.40%	—
11/16/2022	Capacity Utilization	80.40%	—	80.30%	—
11/16/2022	Manufacturing (SIC) Production	0.20%	—	0.40%	—
11/16/2022	Business Inventories	0.50%	—	0.80%	—
11/16/2022	NAHB Housing Market Index	36	—	38	—
11/16/2022	Net Long-term TIC Flows	—	—	$197.9b	—
11/16/2022	Total Net TIC Flows	—	—	$275.6b	—
11/17/2022	Housing Starts	1412k	—	1439k	—
11/17/2022	Building Permits	1515k	—	1564k	—
11/17/2022	Housing Starts MoM	-1.90%	—	-8.10%	—
11/17/2022	Building Permits MoM	-3.10%	—	1.40%	—
11/17/2022	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	-6	—	-8.7	—
11/17/2022	Initial Jobless Claims	222k	—	225k	—
11/17/2022	Continuing Claims	1509k	—	1493k	—
11/17/2022	Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity	-7	—	-7	—
11/18/2022	Existing Home Sales	4.37m	—	4.71m	—
11/18/2022	Existing Home Sales MoM	-7.20%	—	-1.50%	—
11/18/2022	Leading Index	-0.40%	—	-0.40%	—
11/21/2022	Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index	—	—	0.1	—

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

December 1, 2023 Headlines November 30, 2023
November 30, 2023 Headlines November 29, 2023
November 29, 2023 Headlines November 29, 2023

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.