November 14, 2023 Headlines

Headline CPI came in lower than expected, showing no increase in October, likely taking a December rate hike off the table. The unexpected inflation number sent yields plunging, with the curve 11 to 18 bps lower. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, came in lower than expected at +0.2% vs +0.3% expected. While today’s news likely results in no hike in December, Fed officials have stressed that they could keep hiking if the data calls for it.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
11/14/23 NFIB Small Business Optimism 90.5 90.7 90.8
11/14/23 CPI MoM 0.10% 0.00% 0.40%
11/14/23 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.30% 0.20% 0.30%
11/14/23 CPI YoY 3.30% 3.20% 3.70%
11/14/23 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 4.10% 4.00% 4.10%
11/14/23 CPI Index NSA 307.886 307.671 307.789
11/14/23 CPI Core Index SA 311.653 311.365 310.661
11/14/23 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY 0.80% 0.50%
11/14/23 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 0.00% -0.10% 0.00%
11/15/23 MBA Mortgage Applications 2.50%
11/15/23 Retail Sales Advance MoM -0.30% 0.70%
11/15/23 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM -0.10% 0.60%
11/15/23 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.20% 0.60%
11/15/23 Retail Sales Control Group 0.20% 0.60%
11/15/23 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.10% 0.50%
11/15/23 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.30% 0.30%
11/15/23 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.20% 0.20%
11/15/23 PPI Final Demand YoY 1.90% 2.20%
11/15/23 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.70% 2.70%
11/15/23 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 2.80% 2.80%
11/15/23 Empire Manufacturing -3 -4.6
11/15/23 Business Inventories 0.40% 0.40%
11/16/23 Import Price Index MoM -0.30% 0.10%
11/16/23 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM -0.30% -0.30%
11/16/23 Import Price Index YoY -1.80% -1.70%
11/16/23 Export Price Index MoM -0.50% 0.70%
11/16/23 Export Price Index YoY -4.10%
11/16/23 Initial Jobless Claims 220k 217k
11/16/23 Continuing Claims 1846k 1834k
11/16/23 New York Fed Services Business Activity -19.1
11/16/23 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook -8.3 -9
11/16/23 Industrial Production MoM -0.40% 0.30%
11/16/23 Capacity Utilization 79.40% 79.70%
11/16/23 Manufacturing (SIC) Production -0.40% 0.40%
11/16/23 NAHB Housing Market Index 40 40
11/16/23 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity -8
11/16/23 Net Long-term TIC Flows $63.5b
11/16/23 Total Net TIC Flows $134.4b
11/17/23 Building Permits 1450k 1473k 1471k
11/17/23 Building Permits MoM -1.40% -4.40% -4.50%
11/17/23 Housing Starts 1350k 1358k
11/17/23 Housing Starts MoM -0.60% 7.00%
11/17/23 Kansas City Fed Services Activity -1


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