Rates rallied overnight as continued uncertainty around the US Senate tax reform bill has sparked a risk-off trade, as equities and commodities continue their slide. Oil fell on unexpectedly high inventories as well as news that Russia is expressing trepidation regarding continuing the current OPEC supply cuts. October CPI came in as expected, increasing 0.1%; while core CPI moved up by 0.2%. The year-over-year pace for headline CPI decreased to 2.0% from 2.2%, and core CPI moved up to 1.8% from 1.7%. The Fed should have the confidence to keep the pace of their policy tightening as core consumer inflation appears to be well contained.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
11/13 Monthly Budget Statement -$59.0b -$63.2b -$45.8b
11/14 NFIB Small Business Optimism 104 103.8 103
11/14 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.10% 0.40% 0.40%
11/14 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.40% 0.40%
11/14 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.20% 0.20% 0.20%
11/14 PPI Final Demand YoY 2.40% 2.80% 2.60%
11/14 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.20% 2.40% 2.20%
11/14 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 2.30% 2.10%
11/15 MBA Mortgage Applications 3.10% 0.00%
11/15 CPI MoM 0.10% 0.10% 0.50%
11/15 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.20% 0.10%
11/15 CPI YoY 2.00% 2.00% 2.20%
11/15 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 1.70% 1.80% 1.70%
11/15 CPI Core Index SA 253.252 253.428 252.86
11/15 CPI Index NSA 246.646 246.663 246.819
11/15 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 0.40% 0.60%
11/15 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY 0.40% 0.70% 0.60%
11/15 Empire Manufacturing 25.1 19.4 30.2
11/15 Retail Sales Advance MoM 0.00% 0.20% 1.60% 1.90%
11/15 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.20% 0.10% 1.00% 1.20%
11/15 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.30% 0.30% 0.50% 0.60%
11/15 Retail Sales Control Group 0.30% 0.30% 0.40% 0.50%
11/15 Business Inventories 0.00% 0.70%
11/15 Total Net TIC Flows $125.0b
11/15 Net Long-term TIC Flows $67.2b
11/16 Initial Jobless Claims 235k 239k
11/16 Continuing Claims 1900k 1901k
11/16 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 24.6 27.9
11/16 Import Price Index MoM 0.30% 0.70%
11/16 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM 0.20% 0.30%
11/16 Import Price Index YoY 2.50% 2.70%
11/16 Export Price Index MoM 0.40% 0.80%
11/16 Export Price Index YoY 2.90%
11/16 Industrial Production MoM 0.50% 0.30%
11/16 Capacity Utilization 76.30% 76.00%
11/16 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 0.50% 0.10%
11/16 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 51.5
11/16 Bloomberg Economic Expectations 47.5
11/16 NAHB Housing Market Index 67 68
11/16-11/17 MBA Mortgage Foreclosures 1.29%
11/16-11/17 Mortgage Delinquencies 4.24%
11/17 Housing Starts 1190k 1127k
11/17 Housing Starts MoM 5.60% -4.70%
11/17 Building Permits 1250k 1215k 1225k
11/17 Building Permits MoM 2.00% -4.50% -3.70%
11/17 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 21 23