Rates rallied overnight as continued uncertainty around the US Senate tax reform bill has sparked a risk-off trade, as equities and commodities continue their slide. Oil fell on unexpectedly high inventories as well as news that Russia is expressing trepidation regarding continuing the current OPEC supply cuts. October CPI came in as expected, increasing 0.1%; while core CPI moved up by 0.2%. The year-over-year pace for headline CPI decreased to 2.0% from 2.2%, and core CPI moved up to 1.8% from 1.7%. The Fed should have the confidence to keep the pace of their policy tightening as core consumer inflation appears to be well contained.
Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 11/13 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$59.0b | -$63.2b | -$45.8b | — |
| 11/14 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 104 | 103.8 | 103 | — |
| 11/14 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.10% | 0.40% | 0.40% | — |
| 11/14 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.40% | 0.40% | — |
| 11/14 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.20% | — |
| 11/14 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.40% | 2.80% | 2.60% | — |
| 11/14 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.20% | 2.40% | 2.20% | — |
| 11/14 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | 2.30% | 2.10% | — |
| 11/15 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 3.10% | 0.00% | — |
| 11/15 | CPI MoM | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.50% | — |
| 11/15 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.10% | — |
| 11/15 | CPI YoY | 2.00% | 2.00% | 2.20% | — |
| 11/15 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 1.70% | 1.80% | 1.70% | — |
| 11/15 | CPI Core Index SA | 253.252 | 253.428 | 252.86 | — |
| 11/15 | CPI Index NSA | 246.646 | 246.663 | 246.819 | — |
| 11/15 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | 0.40% | 0.60% | — |
| 11/15 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | 0.40% | 0.70% | 0.60% |
| 11/15 | Empire Manufacturing | 25.1 | 19.4 | 30.2 | — |
| 11/15 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.00% | 0.20% | 1.60% | 1.90% |
| 11/15 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.20% | 0.10% | 1.00% | 1.20% |
| 11/15 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.50% | 0.60% |
| 11/15 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.40% | 0.50% |
| 11/15 | Business Inventories | 0.00% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 11/15 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $125.0b | — |
| 11/15 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $67.2b | — |
| 11/16 | Initial Jobless Claims | 235k | — | 239k | — |
| 11/16 | Continuing Claims | 1900k | — | 1901k | — |
| 11/16 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 24.6 | — | 27.9 | — |
| 11/16 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 11/16 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 11/16 | Import Price Index YoY | 2.50% | — | 2.70% | — |
| 11/16 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 11/16 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 2.90% | — |
| 11/16 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 11/16 | Capacity Utilization | 76.30% | — | 76.00% | — |
| 11/16 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.50% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 11/16 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 51.5 | — |
| 11/16 | Bloomberg Economic Expectations | — | — | 47.5 | — |
| 11/16 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 67 | — | 68 | — |
| 11/16-11/17 | MBA Mortgage Foreclosures | — | — | 1.29% | — |
| 11/16-11/17 | Mortgage Delinquencies | — | — | 4.24% | — |
| 11/17 | Housing Starts | 1190k | — | 1127k | — |
| 11/17 | Housing Starts MoM | 5.60% | — | -4.70% | — |
| 11/17 | Building Permits | 1250k | — | 1215k | 1225k |
| 11/17 | Building Permits MoM | 2.00% | — | -4.50% | -3.70% |
| 11/17 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 21 | — | 23 | — |