November 15, 2022 Headlines

Treasuries are 5-10 basis points lower to start the day, providing a boost for equities ahead of the open as well (SPX futures +1.07%). Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard went on the record yesterday saying she thinks it “will probably be appropriate soon” to slow the pace of rate hikes following four consecutive 75 bp increases. She also made clear that she doesn’t think now is the time to stop policy tightening, but perhaps more interesting was her acknowledgement of real yields moving above 1% across much of the yield curve. “That’s a big shift in a 9-month time period,” said Brainard. No argument from us or any other fixed income person on that point. There are a couple of positive articles out this morning for the peak inflation narrative. A Financial Times article notes a clearing of logjams at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach following an early holiday import rush, and in a rare move, Apple is offering promotional discounts for small business on Mac computers to combat a slowdown during the holiday quarter.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

11/15/2022Bloomberg Nov. United States Economic Survey
11/15/2022Empire Manufacturing-64.5-9.1
11/15/2022PPI Final Demand MoM0.40%0.20%0.40%0.20%
11/15/2022PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%0.00%0.30%0.20%
11/15/2022PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%0.20%0.40%0.30%
11/15/2022PPI Final Demand YoY8.30%8.00%8.50%8.40%
11/15/2022PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY7.20%6.70%7.20%7.10%
11/15/2022PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY5.60%5.40%5.60%
11/16/2022MBA Mortgage Applications-0.10%
11/16/2022Retail Sales Advance MoM1.00%0.00%
11/16/2022Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.50%0.10%
11/16/2022Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.20%0.30%
11/16/2022Retail Sales Control Group0.30%0.40%
11/16/2022Import Price Index MoM-0.40%-1.20%
11/16/2022Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.80%-0.50%
11/16/2022Import Price Index YoY4.20%6.00%
11/16/2022Export Price Index MoM-0.30%-0.80%
11/16/2022Export Price Index YoY7.10%9.50%
11/16/2022Industrial Production MoM0.10%0.40%
11/16/2022Capacity Utilization80.40%80.30%
11/16/2022Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.20%0.40%
11/16/2022Business Inventories0.50%0.80%
11/16/2022NAHB Housing Market Index3638
11/16/2022Net Long-term TIC Flows$197.9b
11/16/2022Total Net TIC Flows$275.6b
11/17/2022Housing Starts1411k1439k
11/17/2022Building Permits1514k1564k
11/17/2022Housing Starts MoM-2.00%-8.10%
11/17/2022Building Permits MoM-3.20%1.40%
11/17/2022Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook-6-8.7
11/17/2022Initial Jobless Claims229k225k
11/17/2022Continuing Claims1510k1493k
11/17/2022Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity-8-7
11/18/2022Existing Home Sales4.40m4.71m
11/18/2022Existing Home Sales MoM-6.60%-1.50%
11/18/2022Leading Index-0.40%-0.40%
11/21/2022Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.1
11/22/2022Richmond Fed Manufact. Index-6-10


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