November 15, 2023 Headlines

Treasury yields are unchanged to slightly higher in relatively quiet trading following yesterday’s outsized rally post-CPI. Yields fell 20-22 basis points yesterday in the 2-year to 5-year part of the curve as the market priced in an additional Fed rate cut in 2024 (75 bps to 100 bps). Yesterday’s CPI report wasn’t a major deceleration in broad inflation pressures, but was it enough to provide cover for Fed leaders to end the current rate hike regime? It’s too early to definitively answer that question, but financial market participants don’t get the answers before the test. For today’s data, retail sales were generally in line with expectations in October, but a strong September report was revised even higher. The control group, which is used in the GDP calculation, rose 0.2% in October following an upwardly-revised 0.7% the prior month.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

11/15/2023MBA Mortgage Applications2.80%2.50%
11/15/2023Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.30%-0.10%0.70%0.90%
11/15/2023Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM-0.20%0.10%0.60%0.80%
11/15/2023Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.20%0.10%0.60%0.80%
11/15/2023Retail Sales Control Group0.20%0.20%0.60%0.70%
11/15/2023PPI Final Demand MoM0.10%-0.50%0.50%0.40%
11/15/2023PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%0.00%0.30%0.20%
11/15/2023PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.10%0.20%0.30%
11/15/2023PPI Final Demand YoY1.90%1.30%2.20%
11/15/2023PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.70%2.40%2.70%
11/15/2023PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.80%2.90%2.80%3.00%
11/15/2023Empire Manufacturing-39.1-4.6
11/15/2023Business Inventories0.40%0.40%
11/16/2023Import Price Index MoM-0.30%0.10%
11/16/2023Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.30%-0.30%
11/16/2023Import Price Index YoY-1.80%-1.70%
11/16/2023Export Price Index MoM-0.50%0.70%
11/16/2023Export Price Index YoY-4.10%
11/16/2023Initial Jobless Claims220k217k
11/16/2023Continuing Claims1846k1834k
11/16/2023New York Fed Services Business Activity-19.1
11/16/2023Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook-8.3-9
11/16/2023Industrial Production MoM-0.40%0.30%
11/16/2023Capacity Utilization79.40%79.70%
11/16/2023Manufacturing (SIC) Production-0.40%0.40%
11/16/2023NAHB Housing Market Index4040
11/16/2023Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity-8
11/16/2023Net Long-term TIC Flows$63.5b
11/16/2023Total Net TIC Flows$134.4b
11/17/2023Building Permits1450k1473k1471k
11/17/2023Building Permits MoM-1.40%-4.40%-4.50%
11/17/2023Housing Starts1350k1358k
11/17/2023Housing Starts MoM-0.60%7.00%
11/17/2023Kansas City Fed Services Activity-1
11/20/2023Leading Index-0.60%-0.70%
11/21/2023Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.02
11/21/2023Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity-20.3
11/21/2023Existing Home Sales3.91m3.96m
11/21/2023Existing Home Sales MoM-1.40%-2.00%
11/21/2023FOMC Meeting Minutes
11/22/2023MBA Mortgage Applications2.80%
11/22/2023Initial Jobless Claims
11/22/2023Continuing Claims
11/22/2023Durable Goods Orders-3.40%4.60%
11/22/2023Durables Ex Transportation0.40%
11/22/2023Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%
11/22/2023Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-0.10%
11/22/2023U. of Mich. Sentiment60.760.4
11/22/2023U. of Mich. Current Conditions65.7
11/22/2023U. of Mich. Expectations56.9
11/22/2023U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.40%
11/22/2023U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.20%

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