November 15, 2023 Headlines

Treasury yields are unchanged to slightly higher in relatively quiet trading following yesterday’s outsized rally post-CPI. Yields fell 20-22 basis points yesterday in the 2-year to 5-year part of the curve as the market priced in an additional Fed rate cut in 2024 (75 bps to 100 bps). Yesterday’s CPI report wasn’t a major deceleration in broad inflation pressures, but was it enough to provide cover for Fed leaders to end the current rate hike regime? It’s too early to definitively answer that question, but financial market participants don’t get the answers before the test. For today’s data, retail sales were generally in line with expectations in October, but a strong September report was revised even higher. The control group, which is used in the GDP calculation, rose 0.2% in October following an upwardly-revised 0.7% the prior month.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
11/15/2023	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	2.80%	2.50%	—
11/15/2023	Retail Sales Advance MoM	-0.30%	-0.10%	0.70%	0.90%
11/15/2023	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	-0.20%	0.10%	0.60%	0.80%
11/15/2023	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas	0.20%	0.10%	0.60%	0.80%
11/15/2023	Retail Sales Control Group	0.20%	0.20%	0.60%	0.70%
11/15/2023	PPI Final Demand MoM	0.10%	-0.50%	0.50%	0.40%
11/15/2023	PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.30%	0.00%	0.30%	0.20%
11/15/2023	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM	0.20%	0.10%	0.20%	0.30%
11/15/2023	PPI Final Demand YoY	1.90%	1.30%	2.20%	—
11/15/2023	PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	2.70%	2.40%	2.70%	—
11/15/2023	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY	2.80%	2.90%	2.80%	3.00%
11/15/2023	Empire Manufacturing	-3	9.1	-4.6	—
11/15/2023	Business Inventories	0.40%	—	0.40%	—
11/16/2023	Import Price Index MoM	-0.30%	—	0.10%	—
11/16/2023	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	-0.30%	—	-0.30%	—
11/16/2023	Import Price Index YoY	-1.80%	—	-1.70%	—
11/16/2023	Export Price Index MoM	-0.50%	—	0.70%	—
11/16/2023	Export Price Index YoY	—	—	-4.10%	—
11/16/2023	Initial Jobless Claims	220k	—	217k	—
11/16/2023	Continuing Claims	1846k	—	1834k	—
11/16/2023	New York Fed Services Business Activity	—	—	-19.1	—
11/16/2023	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	-8.3	—	-9	—
11/16/2023	Industrial Production MoM	-0.40%	—	0.30%	—
11/16/2023	Capacity Utilization	79.40%	—	79.70%	—
11/16/2023	Manufacturing (SIC) Production	-0.40%	—	0.40%	—
11/16/2023	NAHB Housing Market Index	40	—	40	—
11/16/2023	Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity	—	—	-8	—
11/16/2023	Net Long-term TIC Flows	—	—	$63.5b	—
11/16/2023	Total Net TIC Flows	—	—	$134.4b	—
11/17/2023	Building Permits	1450k	—	1473k	1471k
11/17/2023	Building Permits MoM	-1.40%	—	-4.40%	-4.50%
11/17/2023	Housing Starts	1350k	—	1358k	—
11/17/2023	Housing Starts MoM	-0.60%	—	7.00%	—
11/17/2023	Kansas City Fed Services Activity	—	—	-1	—
11/20/2023	Leading Index	-0.60%	—	-0.70%	—
11/21/2023	Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index	—	—	0.02	—
11/21/2023	Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity	—	—	-20.3	—
11/21/2023	Existing Home Sales	3.91m	—	3.96m	—
11/21/2023	Existing Home Sales MoM	-1.40%	—	-2.00%	—
11/21/2023	FOMC Meeting Minutes	—	—	—	—
11/22/2023	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	2.80%	—
11/22/2023	Initial Jobless Claims	—	—	—	—
11/22/2023	Continuing Claims	—	—	—	—
11/22/2023	Durable Goods Orders	-3.40%	—	4.60%	—
11/22/2023	Durables Ex Transportation	—	—	0.40%	—
11/22/2023	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	—	—	0.50%	—
11/22/2023	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	—	-0.10%	—
11/22/2023	U. of Mich. Sentiment	60.7	—	60.4	—
11/22/2023	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	—	—	65.7	—
11/22/2023	U. of Mich. Expectations	—	—	56.9	—
11/22/2023	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	—	—	4.40%	—
11/22/2023	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	3.20%	—

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