November 15, 2023 Headlines

Treasury yields are unchanged to slightly higher in relatively quiet trading following yesterday’s outsized rally post-CPI. Yields fell 20-22 basis points yesterday in the 2-year to 5-year part of the curve as the market priced in an additional Fed rate cut in 2024 (75 bps to 100 bps). Yesterday’s CPI report wasn’t a major deceleration in broad inflation pressures, but was it enough to provide cover for Fed leaders to end the current rate hike regime? It’s too early to definitively answer that question, but financial market participants don’t get the answers before the test. For today’s data, retail sales were generally in line with expectations in October, but a strong September report was revised even higher. The control group, which is used in the GDP calculation, rose 0.2% in October following an upwardly-revised 0.7% the prior month.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
11/15/2023 MBA Mortgage Applications 2.80% 2.50%
11/15/2023 Retail Sales Advance MoM -0.30% -0.10% 0.70% 0.90%
11/15/2023 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM -0.20% 0.10% 0.60% 0.80%
11/15/2023 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.20% 0.10% 0.60% 0.80%
11/15/2023 Retail Sales Control Group 0.20% 0.20% 0.60% 0.70%
11/15/2023 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.10% -0.50% 0.50% 0.40%
11/15/2023 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.30% 0.00% 0.30% 0.20%
11/15/2023 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.20% 0.10% 0.20% 0.30%
11/15/2023 PPI Final Demand YoY 1.90% 1.30% 2.20%
11/15/2023 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.70% 2.40% 2.70%
11/15/2023 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 2.80% 2.90% 2.80% 3.00%
11/15/2023 Empire Manufacturing -3 9.1 -4.6
11/15/2023 Business Inventories 0.40% 0.40%
11/16/2023 Import Price Index MoM -0.30% 0.10%
11/16/2023 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM -0.30% -0.30%
11/16/2023 Import Price Index YoY -1.80% -1.70%
11/16/2023 Export Price Index MoM -0.50% 0.70%
11/16/2023 Export Price Index YoY -4.10%
11/16/2023 Initial Jobless Claims 220k 217k
11/16/2023 Continuing Claims 1846k 1834k
11/16/2023 New York Fed Services Business Activity -19.1
11/16/2023 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook -8.3 -9
11/16/2023 Industrial Production MoM -0.40% 0.30%
11/16/2023 Capacity Utilization 79.40% 79.70%
11/16/2023 Manufacturing (SIC) Production -0.40% 0.40%
11/16/2023 NAHB Housing Market Index 40 40
11/16/2023 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity -8
11/16/2023 Net Long-term TIC Flows $63.5b
11/16/2023 Total Net TIC Flows $134.4b
11/17/2023 Building Permits 1450k 1473k 1471k
11/17/2023 Building Permits MoM -1.40% -4.40% -4.50%
11/17/2023 Housing Starts 1350k 1358k
11/17/2023 Housing Starts MoM -0.60% 7.00%
11/17/2023 Kansas City Fed Services Activity -1
11/20/2023 Leading Index -0.60% -0.70%
11/21/2023 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 0.02
11/21/2023 Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity -20.3
11/21/2023 Existing Home Sales 3.91m 3.96m
11/21/2023 Existing Home Sales MoM -1.40% -2.00%
11/21/2023 FOMC Meeting Minutes
11/22/2023 MBA Mortgage Applications 2.80%
11/22/2023 Initial Jobless Claims
11/22/2023 Continuing Claims
11/22/2023 Durable Goods Orders -3.40% 4.60%
11/22/2023 Durables Ex Transportation 0.40%
11/22/2023 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.50%
11/22/2023 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air -0.10%
11/22/2023 U. of Mich. Sentiment 60.7 60.4
11/22/2023 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 65.7
11/22/2023 U. of Mich. Expectations 56.9
11/22/2023 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 4.40%
11/22/2023 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 3.20%

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