November 16, 2020 Headlines

For the second consecutive Monday morning, a positive vaccine announcement is boosting risk asset and driving Treasury prices lower. Moderna Inc. says its Covid-19 vaccine was 94.5% effective in preliminary analysis, following last week’s Pfizer announcement that its vaccine was also more than 90% effective. S&P 500 futures are up more than 1%, and European indices have also turned higher on the news (Euro Stoxx +1.7%). This week’s economic calendar is headlined by tomorrow morning’s retail sales report for October, which should shed some light on whether strong consumption in September fueled momentum into Q4. Several Fed leaders will be speaking this week, although the list does not include Jerome Powell.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
11/16/20 Empire Manufacturing 13.5 6.3 10.5 —
11/17/20 Retail Sales Advance MoM 0.50% — 1.90% —
11/17/20 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.60% — 1.50% —
11/17/20 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.60% — 1.50% —
11/17/20 Import Price Index MoM 0.00% — 0.30% —
11/17/20 Retail Sales Control Group 0.50% — 1.40% —
11/17/20 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM 0.40% — 0.70% —
11/17/20 Import Price Index YoY -0.70% — -1.10% —
11/17/20 Export Price Index MoM 0.20% — 0.60% —
11/17/20 Export Price Index YoY — — -1.80% —
11/17/20 Industrial Production MoM 1.00% — -0.60% —
11/17/20 Capacity Utilization 72.30% — 71.50% —
11/17/20 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 1.00% — -0.30% —
11/17/20 Business Inventories 0.60% — 0.30% —
11/17/20 NAHB Housing Market Index 85 — 85 —
11/17/20 Net Long-term TIC Flows — — $27.8b —
11/17/20 Total Net TIC Flows — — $86.3b —
11/18/20 MBA Mortgage Applications — — -0.50% —
11/18/20 Building Permits 1567k — 1553k 1545k
11/18/20 Building Permits MoM 1.40% — 5.20% 4.70%
11/18/20 Housing Starts 1457k — 1415k —
11/18/20 Housing Starts MoM 3.00% — 1.90% —
11/19/20 Initial Jobless Claims 700k — 709k —
11/19/20 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 22 — 32.3 —
11/19/20 Continuing Claims 6400k — 6786k —
11/19/20 Bloomberg Economic Expectations — — 43 —
11/19/20 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort — — 48 —
11/19/20 Leading Index 0.70% — 0.70% —
11/19/20 Existing Home Sales 6.45m — 6.54m —
11/19/20 Existing Home Sales MoM -1.40% — 9.40% —
11/19/20 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity — — 13 —

 

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