The Treasury curve is lower and flatter with the long of the curve down about 3 bps while the 2 year is essentially unchanged. Equities were lower on the back of two reports; first, that Mueller had subpoenaed Trump campaign docs and, second, that North Korea is continuing work on a ballistic missile submarine. The House passed its version of tax reform yesterday and the Senate Finance Committee voted 14-12 to move ahead with the Republican tax plan, with the upper chamber like to vote on the bill the week of November 27th. With the passage of the plan in the House, Congress is closer to getting to pass tax reform, but the Senate’s decision to add the repeal of the Affordable Care Act’s insurance mandate complicates the issue and is a reminder that there is still some ways to go in order to make tax reform official.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
11/13Monthly Budget Statement-$59.0b-$63.2b-$45.8b
11/14NFIB Small Business Optimism104103.8103
11/14PPI Final Demand MoM0.10%0.40%0.40%
11/14PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.40%0.40%
11/14PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.20%0.20%
11/14PPI Final Demand YoY2.40%2.80%2.60%
11/14PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.20%2.40%2.20%
11/14PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.30%2.10%
11/15MBA Mortgage Applications3.10%0.00%
11/15CPI MoM0.10%0.10%0.50%
11/15CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%0.10%
11/15CPI YoY2.00%2.00%2.20%
11/15CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.70%1.80%1.70%
11/15CPI Core Index SA253.252253.428252.86
11/15CPI Index NSA246.646246.663246.819
11/15Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.40%0.60%
11/15Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY0.40%0.70%0.60%
11/15Empire Manufacturing25.119.430.2
11/15Retail Sales Advance MoM0.00%0.20%1.60%1.90%
11/15Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.20%0.10%1.00%1.20%
11/15Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%0.30%0.50%0.60%
11/15Retail Sales Control Group0.30%0.30%0.40%0.50%
11/15Business Inventories0.00%0.00%0.70%0.60%
11/15Total Net TIC Flows$75.0b-$51.3b$125.0b$130.2b
11/15Net Long-term TIC Flows$80.9b$67.2b$73.2b
11/16Initial Jobless Claims235k249k239k
11/16Continuing Claims1900k1860k1901k1904k
11/16Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook24.622.727.9
11/16Import Price Index MoM0.40%0.20%0.70%0.80%
11/16Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.20%0.10%0.30%0.40%
11/16Import Price Index YoY2.50%2.50%2.70%
11/16Export Price Index MoM0.40%0.00%0.80%0.70%
11/16Export Price Index YoY2.70%2.90%2.80%
11/16Industrial Production MoM0.50%0.90%0.30%0.40%
11/16Capacity Utilization76.30%77.00%76.00%76.40%
11/16Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.60%1.30%0.10%0.40%
11/16Bloomberg Consumer Comfort52.151.5
11/16Bloomberg Economic Expectations5347.5
11/16NAHB Housing Market Index677068
11/17Housing Starts1190k1290k1127k1135k
11/17Housing Starts MoM5.60%13.70%-4.70%-3.20%
11/17Building Permits1250k1297k1215k1225k
11/17Building Permits MoM2.00%5.90%-4.50%-3.70%
11/17MBA Mortgage Foreclosures1.23%1.29%
11/17Mortgage Delinquencies4.88%4.24%
11/17Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity2123