November 17, 2020 Headlines

Much like last week, euphoria in risk markets in response to a vaccine announcement is being followed by more sobering news of ongoing spread of Covid and subsequent lockdowns in the U.S. and Europe. At the same time, there are still no signs of Congress working on a new fiscal aid package. S&P 500 futures are down 0.75%, and Treasury yields are lower across the curve, with the 10-year yield back down to 0.87% after reaching a recent high of 0.98% last Tuesday. Retail sales were weaker than expected in October, and the strong September numbers were revised lower. The softness was widespread across the various categories as the consumption boost from prior fiscal aid packages begins to fade.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
11/16/20 Empire Manufacturing 13.5 6.3 10.5 —
11/17/20 Retail Sales Advance MoM 0.50% 0.30% 1.90% 1.60%
11/17/20 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.60% 0.20% 1.50% 1.20%
11/17/20 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.60% 0.20% 1.50% 1.20%
11/17/20 Retail Sales Control Group 0.50% 0.10% 1.40% 0.90%
11/17/20 Import Price Index MoM 0.00% -0.10% 0.30% 0.20%
11/17/20 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM 0.30% 0.00% 0.70% 0.60%
11/17/20 Import Price Index YoY -0.80% -1.00% -1.10% -1.40%
11/17/20 Export Price Index MoM 0.20% 0.20% 0.60% —
11/17/20 Export Price Index YoY — -1.60% -1.80% —
11/17/20 Industrial Production MoM 1.00% 1.10% -0.60% -0.40%
11/17/20 Capacity Utilization 72.30% 72.80% 71.50% 72.00%
11/17/20 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 1.00% 1.00% -0.30% 0.10%
11/17/20 Business Inventories 0.60% — 0.30% —
11/17/20 NAHB Housing Market Index 85 — 85 —
11/17/20 Net Long-term TIC Flows — — $27.8b —
11/17/20 Total Net TIC Flows — — $86.3b —
11/18/20 MBA Mortgage Applications — — -0.50% —
11/18/20 Housing Starts 1460k — 1415k —
11/18/20 Housing Starts MoM 3.20% — 1.90% —
11/18/20 Building Permits 1568k — 1553k 1545k
11/18/20 Building Permits MoM 1.50% — 5.20% 4.70%
11/19/20 Initial Jobless Claims 700k — 709k —
11/19/20 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 22 — 32.3 —
11/19/20 Continuing Claims 6420k — 6786k —
11/19/20 Bloomberg Economic Expectations — — 43 —
11/19/20 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort — — 48 —
11/19/20 Leading Index 0.70% — 0.70% —
11/19/20 Existing Home Sales 6.46m — 6.54m —
11/19/20 Existing Home Sales MoM -1.30% — 9.40% —
11/19/20 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 10 — 13 —

 

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Subscribe

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content. Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First. Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.