November 17, 2020 Headlines

Much like last week, euphoria in risk markets in response to a vaccine announcement is being followed by more sobering news of ongoing spread of Covid and subsequent lockdowns in the U.S. and Europe. At the same time, there are still no signs of Congress working on a new fiscal aid package. S&P 500 futures are down 0.75%, and Treasury yields are lower across the curve, with the 10-year yield back down to 0.87% after reaching a recent high of 0.98% last Tuesday. Retail sales were weaker than expected in October, and the strong September numbers were revised lower. The softness was widespread across the various categories as the consumption boost from prior fiscal aid packages begins to fade.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

11/16/20Empire Manufacturing13.56.310.5
11/17/20Retail Sales Advance MoM0.50%0.30%1.90%1.60%
11/17/20Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.60%0.20%1.50%1.20%
11/17/20Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.60%0.20%1.50%1.20%
11/17/20Retail Sales Control Group0.50%0.10%1.40%0.90%
11/17/20Import Price Index MoM0.00%-0.10%0.30%0.20%
11/17/20Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.30%0.00%0.70%0.60%
11/17/20Import Price Index YoY-0.80%-1.00%-1.10%-1.40%
11/17/20Export Price Index MoM0.20%0.20%0.60%
11/17/20Export Price Index YoY-1.60%-1.80%
11/17/20Industrial Production MoM1.00%1.10%-0.60%-0.40%
11/17/20Capacity Utilization72.30%72.80%71.50%72.00%
11/17/20Manufacturing (SIC) Production1.00%1.00%-0.30%0.10%
11/17/20Business Inventories0.60%0.30%
11/17/20NAHB Housing Market Index8585
11/17/20Net Long-term TIC Flows$27.8b
11/17/20Total Net TIC Flows$86.3b
11/18/20MBA Mortgage Applications-0.50%
11/18/20Housing Starts1460k1415k
11/18/20Housing Starts MoM3.20%1.90%
11/18/20Building Permits1568k1553k1545k
11/18/20Building Permits MoM1.50%5.20%4.70%
11/19/20Initial Jobless Claims700k709k
11/19/20Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook2232.3
11/19/20Continuing Claims6420k6786k
11/19/20Bloomberg Economic Expectations43
11/19/20Bloomberg Consumer Comfort48
11/19/20Leading Index0.70%0.70%
11/19/20Existing Home Sales6.46m6.54m
11/19/20Existing Home Sales MoM-1.30%9.40%
11/19/20Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity1013


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