November 17, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields are drifting 5-6 bps higher across the curve to start the morning following an uneventful overnight session. Fed leaders this week have been consistent in dismissing any thought of a pause in rate hikes in the near-term, even if conceding that a slowdown in the pace of hikes may be appropriate. The more that rates and risk markets rally in the coming weeks, that more hawkish Fed Chair Powell may be at the December 14 FOMC meeting in order to combat the Fed’s perception of premature easing of financial conditions. Housing starts fell 4.2% m/m in October to a 1.425-million-unit pace, and building permits dropped 2.4% m/m. Single-family starts were down 6.1% over the month and -20.8% on a year-over-year basis as higher rates and declining affordability continue to weigh on demand. Regarding the latter, the housing affordability composite index produced by the National Association of Realtors is holding near the record low set in June this year (records go back to Q1 1986).

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
11/17/2022 Housing Starts 1410k 1425k 1439k 1488k
11/17/2022 Building Permits 1514k 1526k 1564k
11/17/2022 Housing Starts MoM -2.00% -4.20% -8.10% -1.30%
11/17/2022 Building Permits MoM -3.20% -2.40% 1.40%
11/17/2022 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook -6 -19.4 -8.7
11/17/2022 Initial Jobless Claims 228k 222k 225k 226k
11/17/2022 Continuing Claims 1510k 1507k 1493k 1494k
11/17/2022 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity -8 -7
11/18/2022 Existing Home Sales 4.40m 4.71m
11/18/2022 Existing Home Sales MoM -6.60% -1.50%
11/18/2022 Leading Index -0.40% -0.40%
11/21/2022 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 0.1
11/22/2022 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index -6 -10
11/23/2022 MBA Mortgage Applications 2.70%
11/23/2022 Durable Goods Orders 0.30% 0.40%
11/23/2022 Durables Ex Transportation -0.20% -0.50%
11/23/2022 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air -0.20% -0.40%
11/23/2022 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air -0.50%
11/23/2022 Initial Jobless Claims 222k
11/23/2022 Continuing Claims 1507k
11/23/2022 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 50 50.4
11/23/2022 S&P Global US Services PMI 47.8
11/23/2022 S&P Global US Composite PMI 48.2
11/23/2022 U. of Mich. Sentiment 55.3 54.7
11/23/2022 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 57.8
11/23/2022 U. of Mich. Expectations 52.7
11/23/2022 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 5.10%
11/23/2022 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 3.00%
11/23/2022 New Home Sales 573k 603k
11/23/2022 New Home Sales MoM -5.10% -10.90%
11/23/2022 FOMC Meeting Minutes

 

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