November 18, 2021 Headlines

Treasury yields are slightly lower beyond the 2-year part of the curve following a relatively quiet overnight trading session, and U.S. equity index futures are up 10-55 basis points ahead of the open. The bond market appears to be taking a breather from recent volatility as participants await the White House’s decision on the next Fed chair. Yesterday’s Fed speakers were a good representation of the dispersion in opinions revealed in the September “dot plot” (FOMC forecasts for the path of the fed funds rate). St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, one of more hawkish voices in 2021, advocated for tapering to be accelerated to a $30 billion per month pace, while San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly opined that the tapering pace should remain unchanged with revaluation of the need to hike rates in “June or July.”

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
11/15/21Empire Manufacturing2230.919.8
11/16/21Retail Sales Advance MoM1.40%1.70%0.70%0.80%
11/16/21Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM1.00%1.70%0.80%0.70%
11/16/21Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.70%1.40%0.70%0.50%
11/16/21Retail Sales Control Group0.90%1.60%0.80%0.50%
11/16/21Import Price Index MoM1.00%1.20%0.40%
11/16/21Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.30%0.50%0.10%0.20%
11/16/21Import Price Index YoY10.30%10.70%9.20%9.30%
11/16/21Export Price Index MoM1.00%1.50%0.10%0.40%
11/16/21Export Price Index YoY16.30%18.00%16.30%16.50%
11/16/21Industrial Production MoM0.90%1.60%-1.30%
11/16/21Capacity Utilization75.90%76.40%75.20%
11/16/21Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.90%1.20%-0.70%
11/16/21Business Inventories0.60%0.70%0.60%0.80%
11/16/21NAHB Housing Market Index808380
11/16/21Total Net TIC Flows-$26.8b$91.0b$91.1b
11/16/21Net Long-term TIC Flows$26.3b$79.3b
11/17/21MBA Mortgage Applications-2.80%5.50%
11/17/21Housing Starts1579k1520k1555k1530k
11/17/21Building Permits1630k1650k1589k1586k
11/17/21Housing Starts MoM1.50%-0.70%-1.60%-2.70%
11/17/21Building Permits MoM2.80%4.00%-7.70%-7.80%
11/18/21Initial Jobless Claims260k268k267k269k
11/18/21Continuing Claims2120k2080k2160k2209k
11/18/21Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook243923.8
11/18/21Langer Consumer Comfort50.3
11/18/21Leading Index0.80%0.20%
11/18/21Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity2831

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.