November 18, 2021 Headlines

Treasury yields are slightly lower beyond the 2-year part of the curve following a relatively quiet overnight trading session, and U.S. equity index futures are up 10-55 basis points ahead of the open. The bond market appears to be taking a breather from recent volatility as participants await the White House’s decision on the next Fed chair. Yesterday’s Fed speakers were a good representation of the dispersion in opinions revealed in the September “dot plot” (FOMC forecasts for the path of the fed funds rate). St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, one of more hawkish voices in 2021, advocated for tapering to be accelerated to a $30 billion per month pace, while San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly opined that the tapering pace should remain unchanged with revaluation of the need to hike rates in “June or July.”

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

11/15/21Empire Manufacturing2230.919.8
11/16/21Retail Sales Advance MoM1.40%1.70%0.70%0.80%
11/16/21Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM1.00%1.70%0.80%0.70%
11/16/21Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.70%1.40%0.70%0.50%
11/16/21Retail Sales Control Group0.90%1.60%0.80%0.50%
11/16/21Import Price Index MoM1.00%1.20%0.40%
11/16/21Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.30%0.50%0.10%0.20%
11/16/21Import Price Index YoY10.30%10.70%9.20%9.30%
11/16/21Export Price Index MoM1.00%1.50%0.10%0.40%
11/16/21Export Price Index YoY16.30%18.00%16.30%16.50%
11/16/21Industrial Production MoM0.90%1.60%-1.30%
11/16/21Capacity Utilization75.90%76.40%75.20%
11/16/21Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.90%1.20%-0.70%
11/16/21Business Inventories0.60%0.70%0.60%0.80%
11/16/21NAHB Housing Market Index808380
11/16/21Total Net TIC Flows-$26.8b$91.0b$91.1b
11/16/21Net Long-term TIC Flows$26.3b$79.3b
11/17/21MBA Mortgage Applications-2.80%5.50%
11/17/21Housing Starts1579k1520k1555k1530k
11/17/21Building Permits1630k1650k1589k1586k
11/17/21Housing Starts MoM1.50%-0.70%-1.60%-2.70%
11/17/21Building Permits MoM2.80%4.00%-7.70%-7.80%
11/18/21Initial Jobless Claims260k268k267k269k
11/18/21Continuing Claims2120k2080k2160k2209k
11/18/21Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook243923.8
11/18/21Langer Consumer Comfort50.3
11/18/21Leading Index0.80%0.20%
11/18/21Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity2831

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