November 19, 2020 Headlines
Covid-related headlines and an increase in weekly jobless claims is driving a modest risk-off trade this morning. Initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose more than 30,000 last week to 742,000, the first increase in five weeks. The immediate perception is that the surge in new cases and scaling back of business openings in certain areas is driving the move. Continuing claims, which are delayed by an additional week, declined by more than 400,000, but part of the decline is attributable to people whose state benefits have been exhausted.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
11/16/20 | Empire Manufacturing | 13.5 | 6.3 | 10.5 | — |
11/17/20 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.50% | 0.30% | 1.90% | 1.60% |
11/17/20 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.60% | 0.20% | 1.50% | 1.20% |
11/17/20 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.60% | 0.20% | 1.50% | 1.20% |
11/17/20 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.50% | 0.10% | 1.40% | 0.90% |
11/17/20 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.00% | -0.10% | 0.30% | 0.20% |
11/17/20 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.30% | 0.00% | 0.70% | 0.60% |
11/17/20 | Import Price Index YoY | -0.80% | -1.00% | -1.10% | -1.40% |
11/17/20 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.60% | — |
11/17/20 | Export Price Index YoY | — | -1.60% | -1.80% | — |
11/17/20 | Industrial Production MoM | 1.00% | 1.10% | -0.60% | -0.40% |
11/17/20 | Capacity Utilization | 72.30% | 72.80% | 71.50% | 72.00% |
11/17/20 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 1.00% | 1.00% | -0.30% | 0.10% |
11/17/20 | Business Inventories | 0.60% | 0.70% | 0.30% | — |
11/17/20 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 85 | 90 | 85 | — |
11/17/20 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | $108.9b | $27.8b | — |
11/17/20 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | -$79.9b | $86.3b | $85.0b |
11/18/20 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -0.30% | -0.50% | — |
11/18/20 | Housing Starts | 1460k | 1530k | 1415k | 1459k |
11/18/20 | Housing Starts MoM | 3.20% | 4.90% | 1.90% | 6.30% |
11/18/20 | Building Permits | 1567k | 1545k | 1553k | 1545k |
11/18/20 | Building Permits MoM | 1.40% | 0.00% | 5.20% | 4.70% |
11/19/20 | Initial Jobless Claims | 700k | 742k | 709k | 711k |
11/19/20 | Continuing Claims | 6400k | 6372k | 6786k | 6801k |
11/19/20 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 22.5 | 26.3 | 32.3 | — |
11/19/20 | Bloomberg Economic Expectations | — | 43 | 43 | — |
11/19/20 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 49.8 | 48 | — |
11/19/20 | Leading Index | 0.70% | — | 0.70% | — |
11/19/20 | Existing Home Sales | 6.47m | — | 6.54m | — |
11/19/20 | Existing Home Sales MoM | -1.10% | — | 9.40% | — |
11/19/20 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 11 | — | 13 | — |
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