November 19, 2020 Headlines

Covid-related headlines and an increase in weekly jobless claims is driving a modest risk-off trade this morning. Initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose more than 30,000 last week to 742,000, the first increase in five weeks. The immediate perception is that the surge in new cases and scaling back of business openings in certain areas is driving the move. Continuing claims, which are delayed by an additional week, declined by more than 400,000, but part of the decline is attributable to people whose state benefits have been exhausted.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

11/16/20Empire Manufacturing13.56.310.5
11/17/20Retail Sales Advance MoM0.50%0.30%1.90%1.60%
11/17/20Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.60%0.20%1.50%1.20%
11/17/20Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.60%0.20%1.50%1.20%
11/17/20Retail Sales Control Group0.50%0.10%1.40%0.90%
11/17/20Import Price Index MoM0.00%-0.10%0.30%0.20%
11/17/20Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.30%0.00%0.70%0.60%
11/17/20Import Price Index YoY-0.80%-1.00%-1.10%-1.40%
11/17/20Export Price Index MoM0.20%0.20%0.60%
11/17/20Export Price Index YoY-1.60%-1.80%
11/17/20Industrial Production MoM1.00%1.10%-0.60%-0.40%
11/17/20Capacity Utilization72.30%72.80%71.50%72.00%
11/17/20Manufacturing (SIC) Production1.00%1.00%-0.30%0.10%
11/17/20Business Inventories0.60%0.70%0.30%
11/17/20NAHB Housing Market Index859085
11/17/20Net Long-term TIC Flows$108.9b$27.8b
11/17/20Total Net TIC Flows-$79.9b$86.3b$85.0b
11/18/20MBA Mortgage Applications-0.30%-0.50%
11/18/20Housing Starts1460k1530k1415k1459k
11/18/20Housing Starts MoM3.20%4.90%1.90%6.30%
11/18/20Building Permits1567k1545k1553k1545k
11/18/20Building Permits MoM1.40%0.00%5.20%4.70%
11/19/20Initial Jobless Claims700k742k709k711k
11/19/20Continuing Claims6400k6372k6786k6801k
11/19/20Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook22.526.332.3
11/19/20Bloomberg Economic Expectations4343
11/19/20Bloomberg Consumer Comfort49.848
11/19/20Leading Index0.70%0.70%
11/19/20Existing Home Sales6.47m6.54m
11/19/20Existing Home Sales MoM-1.10%9.40%
11/19/20Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity1113


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