Treasury prices are slightly higher this morning ahead of President Trump’s announcement this afternoon of his nominee for next Fed Chair.  Although the president is known to deliver a surprise or two, multiple media outlets are reporting that Trump has already told current Fed Governor Jay Powell that he will get the nod.  The markets also await the House’s tax reform bill this morning, which will likely be heavily scrutinized by all sides involved. The Bank of England (BOE) announced today its first rate hike in more than a decade. The BOE benchmark rate was raised 25 bps to 0.5%, despite weaker growth and wage data in recent months. While the move was largely expected, many have wondered whether this will be a one-off event or the start of a tightening cycle.  In the press conference that followed the decision, BOE Governor Mark Carney has avoided directly answering this question, but he also hasn’t disputed current market pricing of gradual hikes going forward. Global equity markets are mixed, and S&P 500 futures are currently unchanged.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPrior
10/30Personal Income0.40%0.40%0.20%
10/30Personal Spending0.90%1.00%0.10%
10/30Real Personal Spending0.50%0.60%-0.10%
10/30PCE Deflator MoM0.40%0.40%0.20%
10/30PCE Deflator YoY1.60%1.60%1.40%
10/30PCE Core MoM0.10%0.10%0.10%
10/30PCE Core YoY1.30%1.30%1.30%
10/30Dallas Fed Manf. Activity2127.621.3
10/31Employment Cost Index0.70%0.70%0.50%
10/31S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.40%0.45%0.35%
10/31S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA5.93%5.92%5.81%
10/31S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index202.87201.99
10/31S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA6.07%5.94%
10/31S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index195.05194.1
10/31Chicago Purchasing Manager6066.265.2
10/31Conf. Board Consumer Confidence121.5125.9119.8
10/31Conf. Board Present Situation151.1146.1
10/31Conf. Board Expectations109.1102.2
11/01MBA Mortgage Applications-2.60%-4.60%
11/01ADP Employment Change200k235k135k
11/01Markit US Manufacturing PMI54.554.654.5
11/01ISM Manufacturing59.558.760.8
11/01ISM Prices Paid67.868.571.5
11/01ISM New Orders63.464.6
11/01ISM Employment59.860.3
11/01Construction Spending MoM-0.20%0.30%0.50%
11/01FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)1.25%1.25%1.25%
11/01FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)1.00%1.00%1.00%
11/01Wards Total Vehicle Sales17.50m18.00m18.47m
11/01Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales13.70m14.02m14.33m
11/02Challenger Job Cuts YoY-3.00%-27.00%
11/02Initial Jobless Claims235k229k233k
11/02Continuing Claims1894k1884k1893k
11/02Nonfarm Productivity2.60%3.00%1.50%
11/02Unit Labor Costs0.40%0.50%0.20%
11/02Bloomberg Consumer Comfort51.751
11/03Change in Nonfarm Payrolls310k-33k
11/03Two-Month Payroll Net Revision-38k
11/03Change in Private Payrolls301k-40k
11/03Change in Manufact. Payrolls15k-1k
11/03Unemployment Rate4.20%4.20%
11/03Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.20%0.50%
11/03Average Hourly Earnings YoY2.70%2.90%
11/03Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.434.4
11/03Labor Force Participation Rate63.10%63.10%
11/03Underemployment Rate8.30%
11/03Trade Balance-$43.2b-$42.4b
11/03ISM Non-Manf. Composite58.559.8
11/03Factory Orders1.20%1.20%
11/03Factory Orders Ex Trans0.40%
11/03Durable Goods Orders2.00%2.20%
11/03Durables Ex Transportation0.70%
11/03Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air1.30%
11/03Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.70%
11/03Markit US Services PMI55.955.9
11/03Markit US Composite PMI55.7