November 2, 2020 Headlines

Treasury prices are higher after the U.K. announced a new 1-month lockdown over the weekend in response to surging Covid cases. Oil prices were initially down 4% on the news but have recovered somewhat to -2.5% on the day. Despite the news and subsequent response in Treasuries and oil, equity futures are up more than 1% ahead of the open. Tomorrow’s election is unquestionably the headline event for the week. Market participants have been pondering the outcomes of the various scenarios as it relates to fiscal stimulus, taxes, and regulation, not to mention the impact of an unclear or contested election result for a prolonged period. There will also be an FOMC meeting mixed in this week, which was pushed to Wednesday/Thursday because of the election, and the October jobs report will be released on Friday. Throw in the release of October MBS prepayment speeds on Thursday, and we’re set for a very busy week.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

11/2/20Markit US Manufacturing PMI53.353.3
11/2/20ISM Manufacturing5655.4
11/2/20ISM New Orders6260.2
11/2/20ISM Prices Paid61.562.8
11/2/20ISM Employment49.6
11/2/20Construction Spending MoM1.00%1.40%
11/3/20Factory Orders1.00%0.70%
11/3/20Factory Orders Ex Trans0.60%0.70%
11/3/20Durable Goods Orders1.90%1.90%
11/3/20Durables Ex Transportation0.80%0.80%
11/3/20Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air1.00%1.00%
11/3/20Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.30%
11/3/20Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.50m16.34m
11/4/20MBA Mortgage Applications1.70%
11/4/20ADP Employment Change650k749k
11/4/20Trade Balance-$63.9b-$67.1b
11/4/20Markit US Services PMI5656
11/4/20Markit US Composite PMI55.5
11/4/20ISM Services Index57.557.8
11/5/20Challenger Job Cuts YoY185.90%
11/5/20Initial Jobless Claims735k751k
11/5/20Continuing Claims7200k7756k
11/5/20Nonfarm Productivity5.60%10.10%
11/5/20Unit Labor Costs-10.80%9.00%
11/5/20Bloomberg Consumer Comfort46.3
11/5/20FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)0.25%0.25%
11/5/20FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)0.00%0.00%
11/5/20Interest Rate on Excess Reserves0.10%0.10%
11/6/20Change in Nonfarm Payrolls590k661k
11/6/20Two-Month Payroll Net Revision145k
11/6/20Change in Private Payrolls700k877k
11/6/20Change in Manufact. Payrolls50k66k
11/6/20Unemployment Rate7.60%7.90%
11/6/20Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.20%0.10%
11/6/20Average Hourly Earnings YoY4.50%4.70%
11/6/20Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.734.7
11/6/20Labor Force Participation Rate61.50%61.40%
11/6/20Underemployment Rate12.80%
11/6/20Wholesale Inventories MoM-0.10%-0.10%
11/6/20Wholesale Trade Sales MoM1.10%1.40%
11/6/20Consumer Credit$8.500b-$7.220b


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