November 2, 2022 Headlines

FOMC day has arrived. Treasuries and equity futures are little changed so far ahead of today’s announcement, which is expected to bring a fourth consecutive 75 basis point rate hike. The bigger area of speculation is how, if at all, the Fed will alter its forward guidance, including any discussion of a slowdown in the pace of hikes at future meetings. We expect Powell and Co. to be very careful to not open the door for any dovish conclusions by market participants, particularly after the upside surprise in September job openings yesterday. That said, today’s hike would get the funds rate much closer to the terminal rate of 4.50% to 5% conveyed by most Fed leaders in recent weeks/months, including the September dot plot. As such, the FOMC would need to slow the pace of hikes unless it wants to hit that terminal rate by year end. Powell could open the door for this moderation as early as the December meeting while still making clear that the outlook remains uncertain and that any such decision would remain data dependent. With another 75 bp hike today, it would mark 375 bps of rate hikes in less than eight months.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
11/2/2022	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-0.50%	-1.70%	—
11/2/2022	ADP Employment Change	185k	239k	208k	192k
11/2/2022	FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)	3.75%	—	3.00%	—
11/2/2022	FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)	4.00%	—	3.25%	—
11/2/2022	Interest on Reserve Balances Rate	3.90%	—	3.15%	—
11/3/2022	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	—	67.60%	—
11/3/2022	Trade Balance	-$72.3b	—	-$67.4b	—
11/3/2022	Nonfarm Productivity	0.50%	—	-4.10%	—
11/3/2022	Unit Labor Costs	4.00%	—	10.20%	—
11/3/2022	Initial Jobless Claims	220k	—	217k	—
11/3/2022	Continuing Claims	1450k	—	1438k	—
11/3/2022	S&P Global US Services PMI	46.6	—	46.6	—
11/3/2022	S&P Global US Composite PMI	47.3	—	47.3	—
11/3/2022	Factory Orders	0.30%	—	0.00%	—
11/3/2022	Factory Orders Ex Trans	—	—	0.20%	—
11/3/2022	Durable Goods Orders	0.40%	—	0.40%	—
11/3/2022	Durables Ex Transportation	-0.50%	—	-0.50%	—
11/3/2022	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	—	—	-0.70%	—
11/3/2022	ISM Services Index	55.3	—	56.7	—
11/3/2022	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	—	-0.50%	—
11/4/2022	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	—	11k	—
11/4/2022	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	196k	—	263k	—
11/4/2022	Change in Private Payrolls	200k	—	288k	—
11/4/2022	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	14k	—	22k	—
11/4/2022	Unemployment Rate	3.60%	—	3.50%	—
11/4/2022	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	0.30%	—	0.30%	—
11/4/2022	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	4.70%	—	5.00%	—
11/4/2022	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.5	—	34.5	—
11/4/2022	Labor Force Participation Rate	62.30%	—	62.30%	—
11/4/2022	Underemployment Rate	—	—	6.70%	—
11/7/2022	Consumer Credit	$33.000b	—	$32.241b	—
11/8/2022	NFIB Small Business Optimism	—	—	92.1	—
11/9/2022	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	-0.50%	—
11/9/2022	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM	—	—	0.10%	—
11/9/2022	Wholesale Inventories MoM	0.90%	—	0.80%	—

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