November 20, 2017

by Jason Haley | Nov 20, 2017 | Beyond the Headlines

The Treasury curve is slightly higher this morning, with the entire curve essentially up one basis point. The continued flattening in the curve has been somewhat under the radar, but has started to garner attention as the spread between the 2-year and the 10-year has narrowed to a 10-year low, currently sitting at 62 bps. This flattening has been largely driven by rising short rates as increased expectations for a Fed rate hike pushing the front end of the curve higher, with the 2-year up 13 bps this month; as labor market remains robust and inflation has started to creep towards the Fed’s 2% target.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
11/20	Leading Index	0.80%	1.20%	-0.20%	0.10%
11/21	Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index	0.2	—	0.17	—
11/21	Existing Home Sales	5.40m	—	5.39m	—
11/21	Existing Home Sales MoM	0.20%	—	0.70%	—
11/22	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	3.10%	—
11/22	Initial Jobless Claims	240k	—	249k	—
11/22	Continuing Claims	1880k	—	1860k	—
11/22	Durable Goods Orders	0.40%	—	2.00%	—
11/22	Durables Ex Transportation	0.50%	—	0.70%	—
11/22	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	0.60%	—	1.70%	—
11/22	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	0.30%	—	0.90%	—
11/22	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	52.1	—
11/22	U. of Mich. Sentiment	98	—	97.8	—
11/22	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	—	—	113.6	—
11/22	U. of Mich. Expectations	—	—	87.6	—
11/22	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.60%	—
11/22	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.50%	—
11/22	FOMC Meeting Minutes	—	—	—	—
11/24	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	55	—	54.6	—
11/24	Markit US Services PMI	55.3	—	55.3	—
11/24	Markit US Composite PMI	—	—	55.2	—
11/27	New Home Sales	615k	—	667k	—
11/27	New Home Sales MoM	-7.80%	—	18.90%	—
11/27	Dallas Fed Manf. Activity	24	—	27.6	—

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