The Treasury curve is slightly higher this morning, with the entire curve essentially up one basis point. The continued flattening in the curve has been somewhat under the radar, but has started to garner attention as the spread between the 2-year and the 10-year has narrowed to a 10-year low, currently sitting at 62 bps. This flattening has been largely driven by rising short rates as increased expectations for a Fed rate hike pushing the front end of the curve higher, with the 2-year up 13 bps this month; as labor market remains robust and inflation has started to creep towards the Fed’s 2% target.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

11/20Leading Index0.80%1.20%-0.20%0.10%
11/21Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.20.17
11/21Existing Home Sales5.40m5.39m
11/21Existing Home Sales MoM0.20%0.70%
11/22MBA Mortgage Applications3.10%
11/22Initial Jobless Claims240k249k
11/22Continuing Claims1880k1860k
11/22Durable Goods Orders0.40%2.00%
11/22Durables Ex Transportation0.50%0.70%
11/22Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.60%1.70%
11/22Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.30%0.90%
11/22Bloomberg Consumer Comfort52.1
11/22U. of Mich. Sentiment9897.8
11/22U. of Mich. Current Conditions113.6
11/22U. of Mich. Expectations87.6
11/22U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.60%
11/22U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%
11/22FOMC Meeting Minutes
11/24Markit US Manufacturing PMI5554.6
11/24Markit US Services PMI55.355.3
11/24Markit US Composite PMI55.2
11/27New Home Sales615k667k
11/27New Home Sales MoM-7.80%18.90%
11/27Dallas Fed Manf. Activity2427.6