November 20, 2019 Headlines

A global risk-off trade is pushing Treasury yields lower across the curve, and S&P 500 futures are currently down 0.3%. The Senate voted unanimously last night to pass a bill supporting Hong Kong protesters, which has drawn threats of retaliation from Chinese officials if the bill becomes law. The Senate bill requires the State Department to certify annually whether Hong Kong remains sufficiently autonomous from Beijing to justify special trade privileges, according to a Bloomberg report. It is not yet known whether President Trump intends to sign such a bill or how it will affect trade negotiations if he does.  On that note, a Reuters article suggests that the current phase-one trade negotiations could expand into something much bigger if the U.S. concedes to rolling back existing tariffs on Chinese goods as well as cancelling the new tariffs announced for December 15. Trump is decided that doing so would require deeper concessions from China, effectively giving U.S. officials an option of a “big” and a “little” trade deal.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

11/18/2019NAHB Housing Market Index717071
11/18/2019Net Long-term TIC Flows$49.5b-$41.1b-$41.2b
11/18/2019Total Net TIC Flows-$37.6b$70.5b$41.9b
11/19/2019Housing Starts1320k1314k1256k1266k
11/19/2019Building Permits1385k1461k1387k1391k
11/19/2019Housing Starts MoM5.10%3.80%-9.40%-7.90%
11/19/2019Building Permits MoM-0.40%5.00%-2.70%-2.40%
11/20/2019MBA Mortgage Applications-2.20%9.60%
11/20/2019FOMC Meeting Minutes
11/21/2019Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook65.6
11/21/2019Initial Jobless Claims218k225k
11/21/2019Continuing Claims1683k1683k
11/21/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort58
11/21/2019Bloomberg Economic Expectations49
11/21/2019Leading Index-0.20%-0.10%
11/21/2019Existing Home Sales5.49m5.38m
11/21/2019Existing Home Sales MoM2.00%-2.20%
11/22/2019Markit US Services PMI5150.651
11/22/2019Markit US Manufacturing PMI51.451.3
11/22/2019Markit US Composite PMI50.9
11/22/2019U. of Mich. Sentiment95.795.7
11/22/2019U. of Mich. Current Conditions111.2110.9
11/22/2019U. of Mich. Expectations85.9
11/22/2019U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.50%
11/22/2019U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.40%
11/22/2019Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity-2-3






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