November 21, 2019 Headlines

Conflicting reports on trade overnight caused Treasury prices to fluctuate between positive and negative territory. In early trading, yields rose on optimism that a trade deal was going to get done. However, a Reuters article was released suggesting a trade deal is unlikely in 2019 given that President Trump is likely to sign the Hong Kong bill from Congress. This sent the 10-year yield to the low of the session before the top Chinese trade official said that he was “cautiously optimistic” that a deal will be reached, and rumors of a delay in trade negotiations were refuted by China’s Ministry of Commerce. Treasury yields are now holding slightly higher on the day, and S&P 500 futures are essentially unchanged. This overnight activity is a microcosm of the heightened sensitivity to US/China trade negotiations in financial markets. Regarding the Hong Kong support bill, the House approved the Senate’s version yesterday, and it is now going to the president’s desk, who is expected to sign it. China continues to speak strongly against this legislation, with a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson saying, “China will take strong countermeasures.”

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

11/18/2019NAHB Housing Market Index717071
11/18/2019Net Long-term TIC Flows$49.5b-$41.1b-$41.2b
11/18/2019Total Net TIC Flows-$37.6b$70.5b$41.9b
11/19/2019Housing Starts1320k1314k1256k1266k
11/19/2019Building Permits1385k1461k1387k1391k
11/19/2019Housing Starts MoM5.10%3.80%-9.40%-7.90%
11/19/2019Building Permits MoM-0.40%5.00%-2.70%-2.40%
11/20/2019MBA Mortgage Applications-2.20%9.60%
11/20/2019FOMC Meeting Minutes
11/21/2019Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook610.45.6
11/21/2019Initial Jobless Claims218k227k225k227k
11/21/2019Continuing Claims1683k1695k1683k1692k
11/21/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort59.158
11/21/2019Bloomberg Economic Expectations51.549
11/21/2019Leading Index-0.10%-0.10%
11/21/2019Existing Home Sales5.49m5.38m
11/21/2019Existing Home Sales MoM2.00%-2.20%
11/22/2019Markit US Services PMI5150.651
11/22/2019Markit US Manufacturing PMI51.451.3
11/22/2019Markit US Composite PMI50.9
11/22/2019U. of Mich. Sentiment95.795.7
11/22/2019U. of Mich. Current Conditions111.2110.9
11/22/2019U. of Mich. Expectations85.9
11/22/2019U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.50%
11/22/2019U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.40%
11/22/2019Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity-2-3



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