November 24, 2021 Headlines

Initial jobless claims fell by 71,000 to 199,000, the lowest level since 1969, last week. Unemployment claims have steadily fallen since the middle of last year as the economy has reopened. Despite the continued decline in unemployment, the number of job openings remains near record highs as many Americans have yet to reenter the labor force.

Third quarter GDP was revised higher to 2.1% vs the initial report of 2.0%. The upward revision was spurred by a larger amount of personal spending. Consumer spending which accounts for 70% of US GDP, grew by 1.7% per the second estimate vs 1.6% from the initial reading.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
11/22/21Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.10.76-0.13-0.18
11/22/21Existing Home Sales6.20m6.34m6.29m
11/22/21Existing Home Sales MoM-1.40%0.80%7.00%
11/23/21Markit US Manufacturing PMI59.159.158.4
11/23/21Markit US Services PMI595758.7
11/23/21Markit US Composite PMI56.557.6
11/23/21Richmond Fed Manufact. Index111112
11/24/21MBA Mortgage Applications1.80%-2.80%
11/24/21Initial Jobless Claims260k199k268k270k
11/24/21Continuing Claims2032k2049k2080k2109k
11/24/21Advance Goods Trade Balance-$95.0b-$82.9b-$96.3b-$97.0b
11/24/21Wholesale Inventories MoM1.00%2.20%1.40%
11/24/21Retail Inventories MoM0.50%0.10%-0.20%
11/24/21GDP Annualized QoQ2.20%2.10%2.00%
11/24/21Personal Consumption1.60%1.70%1.60%
11/24/21GDP Price Index5.70%5.90%5.70%
11/24/21Core PCE QoQ4.50%4.50%4.50%
11/24/21Durable Goods Orders0.20%-0.50%-0.30%-0.40%
11/24/21Durables Ex Transportation0.50%0.50%0.50%0.70%
11/24/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.60%0.80%1.30%
11/24/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.30%1.40%1.30%
11/24/21Langer Consumer Comfort50.7
11/24/21Personal Income0.20%-1.00%
11/24/21Personal Spending1.00%0.60%
11/24/21Real Personal Spending0.50%0.30%
11/24/21PCE Deflator MoM0.70%0.30%
11/24/21PCE Deflator YoY5.10%4.40%
11/24/21PCE Core Deflator MoM0.40%0.20%
11/24/21PCE Core Deflator YoY4.10%3.60%
11/24/21U. of Mich. Sentiment66.966.8
11/24/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions73.273.2
11/24/21U. of Mich. Expectations62.862.8
11/24/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.90%
11/24/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.90%
11/24/21New Home Sales800k800k
11/24/21New Home Sales MoM0.00%14.00%
11/24/21FOMC Meeting Minutes

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