November 25, 2020 Headlines

Treasuries and equity futures are little changed on a quiet pre-Thanksgiving trading session despite a busy economic calendar this morning. Initial jobless claims rose for the second consecutive week, the first back-to-back increase since July. The recent increase in jobless claims is most likely attributable to fresh Covid-driven restrictions in parts of the country amid the surge in cases, and Congress still has not been able to agree to new fiscal aid.  On a positive note, the October durable goods report was better than expected, with headline orders rising 1.3% on the month (0.8% expected). Shipments of non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft (“core” shipments) surged 2.3% over the month, significantly outpacing expectations (0.4%) and positive for Q4 GDP. October personal income, spending, and PCE will be released later this morning, and the minutes of the November 5 FOMC meeting will be released this afternoon. Regarding the latter, market participants will be looking for any hints of future changes to the Fed’s asset purchases. We wish everyone has a very safe and happy Thanksgiving!

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

 

Date Time Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
11/23/2020 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 0.27 0.83 0.27 0.32
11/23/2020 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 53 56.7 53.4 —
11/23/2020 Markit US Services PMI 55 57.7 56.9 —
11/23/2020 Markit US Composite PMI — 57.9 56.3 —
11/24/2020 FHFA House Price Index MoM 0.80% 1.70% 1.50% —
11/24/2020 House Price Purchase Index QoQ — 3.10% 0.80% 1.00%
11/24/2020 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 0.70% 1.27% 0.47% 1.35%
11/24/2020 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 5.30% 6.57% 5.18% 5.33%
11/24/2020 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index — 232.53 229.35 229.68
11/24/2020 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA — 6.96% 5.71% 5.81%
11/24/2020 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index — 226.8 223.97 224.2
11/24/2020 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 98 96.1 100.9 101.4
11/24/2020 Conf. Board Present Situation — 105.9 104.6 106.2
11/24/2020 Conf. Board Expectations — 89.5 98.4 98.2
11/24/2020 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 20 15 29 —
11/25/2020 MBA Mortgage Applications — 3.90% -0.30% —
11/25/2020 Initial Jobless Claims 730k 778k 742k 748k
11/25/2020 Continuing Claims 6000k 6071k 6372k 6370k
11/25/2020 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$80.4b -$80.3b -$79.4b —
11/25/2020 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.40% 0.90% 0.40% 0.70%
11/25/2020 Retail Inventories MoM 0.60% 0.80% 1.60% 1.70%
11/25/2020 GDP Annualized QoQ 33.10% 33.10% 33.10% —
11/25/2020 Personal Consumption 40.90% 40.60% 40.70% —
11/25/2020 GDP Price Index 3.60% 3.60% 3.60% —
11/25/2020 Core PCE QoQ 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% —
11/25/2020 Durable Goods Orders 0.80% 1.30% 1.90% 2.10%
11/25/2020 Durables Ex Transportation 0.50% 1.30% 0.90% 1.50%
11/25/2020 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.50% 0.70% 1.00% 1.90%
11/25/2020 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.40% 2.30% 0.50% 0.70%
11/25/2020 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort — 49.6 49.8 —
11/25/2020 Personal Income -0.10% — 0.90% —
11/25/2020 Personal Spending 0.40% — 1.40% —
11/25/2020 Real Personal Spending 0.30% — 1.20% —
11/25/2020 PCE Deflator MoM 0.00% — 0.20% —
11/25/2020 PCE Deflator YoY 1.20% — 1.40% —
11/25/2020 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.00% — 0.20% —
11/25/2020 PCE Core Deflator YoY 1.40% — 1.50% —
11/25/2020 U. of Mich. Sentiment 77 — 77 —
11/25/2020 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 86 — 85.8 —
11/25/2020 U. of Mich. Expectations 71.9 — 71.3 —
11/25/2020 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation — — 2.80% —
11/25/2020 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation — — 2.60% —
11/25/2020 New Home Sales 975k — 959k —
11/25/2020 New Home Sales MoM 1.70% — -3.50% —
11/25/2020 FOMC Meeting Minutes — — — —

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