November 25, 2020 Headlines

Treasuries and equity futures are little changed on a quiet pre-Thanksgiving trading session despite a busy economic calendar this morning. Initial jobless claims rose for the second consecutive week, the first back-to-back increase since July. The recent increase in jobless claims is most likely attributable to fresh Covid-driven restrictions in parts of the country amid the surge in cases, and Congress still has not been able to agree to new fiscal aid.  On a positive note, the October durable goods report was better than expected, with headline orders rising 1.3% on the month (0.8% expected). Shipments of non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft (“core” shipments) surged 2.3% over the month, significantly outpacing expectations (0.4%) and positive for Q4 GDP. October personal income, spending, and PCE will be released later this morning, and the minutes of the November 5 FOMC meeting will be released this afternoon. Regarding the latter, market participants will be looking for any hints of future changes to the Fed’s asset purchases. We wish everyone has a very safe and happy Thanksgiving!

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer


Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
11/23/2020Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.270.830.270.32
11/23/2020Markit US Manufacturing PMI5356.753.4
11/23/2020Markit US Services PMI5557.756.9
11/23/2020Markit US Composite PMI57.956.3
11/24/2020FHFA House Price Index MoM0.80%1.70%1.50%
11/24/2020House Price Purchase Index QoQ3.10%0.80%1.00%
11/24/2020S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.70%1.27%0.47%1.35%
11/24/2020S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA5.30%6.57%5.18%5.33%
11/24/2020S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index232.53229.35229.68
11/24/2020S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA6.96%5.71%5.81%
11/24/2020S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index226.8223.97224.2
11/24/2020Conf. Board Consumer Confidence9896.1100.9101.4
11/24/2020Conf. Board Present Situation105.9104.6106.2
11/24/2020Conf. Board Expectations89.598.498.2
11/24/2020Richmond Fed Manufact. Index201529
11/25/2020MBA Mortgage Applications3.90%-0.30%
11/25/2020Initial Jobless Claims730k778k742k748k
11/25/2020Continuing Claims6000k6071k6372k6370k
11/25/2020Advance Goods Trade Balance-$80.4b-$80.3b-$79.4b
11/25/2020Wholesale Inventories MoM0.40%0.90%0.40%0.70%
11/25/2020Retail Inventories MoM0.60%0.80%1.60%1.70%
11/25/2020GDP Annualized QoQ33.10%33.10%33.10%
11/25/2020Personal Consumption40.90%40.60%40.70%
11/25/2020GDP Price Index3.60%3.60%3.60%
11/25/2020Core PCE QoQ3.50%3.50%3.50%
11/25/2020Durable Goods Orders0.80%1.30%1.90%2.10%
11/25/2020Durables Ex Transportation0.50%1.30%0.90%1.50%
11/25/2020Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.70%1.00%1.90%
11/25/2020Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.40%2.30%0.50%0.70%
11/25/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort49.649.8
11/25/2020Personal Income-0.10%0.90%
11/25/2020Personal Spending0.40%1.40%
11/25/2020Real Personal Spending0.30%1.20%
11/25/2020PCE Deflator MoM0.00%0.20%
11/25/2020PCE Deflator YoY1.20%1.40%
11/25/2020PCE Core Deflator MoM0.00%0.20%
11/25/2020PCE Core Deflator YoY1.40%1.50%
11/25/2020U. of Mich. Sentiment7777
11/25/2020U. of Mich. Current Conditions8685.8
11/25/2020U. of Mich. Expectations71.971.3
11/25/2020U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.80%
11/25/2020U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.60%
11/25/2020New Home Sales975k959k
11/25/2020New Home Sales MoM1.70%-3.50%
11/25/2020FOMC Meeting Minutes

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