The curve bear steepened overnight in response to yesterday’s news that the UK and the EU are closer to reaching a financial settlement. Additionally, Powell’s comments around loosening regulation as well as tax reform progress have given risk markets a boost further pushing Treasury yields higher. This morning’s release of the second revision of third quarter GDP came in higher than expected at annualized 3.3% pace compared to consensus estimates of 3.2%. Nearly a third of this uptick came from trade and inventories which is likely a function of the hurricanes that hit the gulf and probably more of a one-time impact as opposed to a sign of sustained growth.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

11/27New Home Sales628k685k667k645k
11/27New Home Sales MoM-6.30%6.20%18.90%14.20%
11/27Dallas Fed Manf. Activity2419.427.6
11/28Advance Goods Trade Balance-$64.9b-$68.3b-$64.1b
11/28Wholesale Inventories MoM0.40%-0.40%0.30%0.10%
11/28Retail Inventories MoM-0.10%-1.00%-0.90%
11/28FHFA House Price Index MoM0.50%0.30%0.70%0.80%
11/28House Price Purchase Index QoQ1.40%1.60%1.70%
11/28S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.30%0.52%0.45%0.44%
11/28S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA6.04%6.19%5.92%5.82%
11/28S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index203.5202.87202.68
11/28S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA6.15%6.07%5.95%
11/28S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index195.51195.05194.82
11/28Conf. Board Consumer Confidence124129.5125.9126.2
11/28Conf. Board Present Situation153.9151.1152
11/28Conf. Board Expectations113.3109.1109
11/28Richmond Fed Manufact. Index143012
11/29MBA Mortgage Applications-3.10%0.10% 
11/29GDP Annualized QoQ3.20%3.30%3.00% 
11/29Personal Consumption2.50%2.30%2.40% 
11/29GDP Price Index2.20%2.10%2.20% 
11/29Core PCE QoQ1.30%1.40%1.30% 
11/29Pending Home Sales MoM1.00%0.00% 
11/29Pending Home Sales NSA YoY3.00%-5.40% 
11/29U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book     
11/30Initial Jobless Claims240k239k
11/30Continuing Claims1890k1904k
11/30Personal Income0.30%0.40%
11/30Personal Spending0.30%1.00%
11/30Real Personal Spending0.20%0.60%
11/30PCE Deflator MoM0.10%0.40%
11/30PCE Deflator YoY1.50%1.60%
11/30PCE Core MoM0.20%0.10%
11/30PCE Core YoY1.40%1.30%
11/30Chicago Purchasing Manager6366.2
11/30Bloomberg Consumer Comfort51.7
12/01Markit US Manufacturing PMI5453.8
12/01ISM Manufacturing58.358.7
12/01ISM Prices Paid6768.5
12/01ISM New Orders63.4
12/01ISM Employment59.8
12/01Construction Spending MoM0.50%0.30%
12/01Wards Total Vehicle Sales17.50m18.00m17.98m
12/01Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales13.40m14.02m13.95m