The curve bear steepened overnight in response to yesterday’s news that the UK and the EU are closer to reaching a financial settlement. Additionally, Powell’s comments around loosening regulation as well as tax reform progress have given risk markets a boost further pushing Treasury yields higher. This morning’s release of the second revision of third quarter GDP came in higher than expected at annualized 3.3% pace compared to consensus estimates of 3.2%. Nearly a third of this uptick came from trade and inventories which is likely a function of the hurricanes that hit the gulf and probably more of a one-time impact as opposed to a sign of sustained growth.
Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised | |
| 11/27 | New Home Sales | 628k | 685k | 667k | 645k | |
| 11/27 | New Home Sales MoM | -6.30% | 6.20% | 18.90% | 14.20% | |
| 11/27 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | 24 | 19.4 | 27.6 | — | |
| 11/28 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$64.9b | -$68.3b | -$64.1b | — | |
| 11/28 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.40% | -0.40% | 0.30% | 0.10% | |
| 11/28 | Retail Inventories MoM | — | -0.10% | -1.00% | -0.90% | |
| 11/28 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.50% | 0.30% | 0.70% | 0.80% | |
| 11/28 | House Price Purchase Index QoQ | — | 1.40% | 1.60% | 1.70% | |
| 11/28 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.30% | 0.52% | 0.45% | 0.44% | |
| 11/28 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 6.04% | 6.19% | 5.92% | 5.82% | |
| 11/28 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index | — | 203.5 | 202.87 | 202.68 | |
| 11/28 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | 6.15% | 6.07% | 5.95% | |
| 11/28 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index | — | 195.51 | 195.05 | 194.82 | |
| 11/28 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 124 | 129.5 | 125.9 | 126.2 | |
| 11/28 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | 153.9 | 151.1 | 152 | |
| 11/28 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | 113.3 | 109.1 | 109 | |
| 11/28 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 14 | 30 | 12 | — | |
| 11/29 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -3.10% | 0.10% | — | |
| 11/29 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 3.20% | 3.30% | 3.00% | — | |
| 11/29 | Personal Consumption | 2.50% | 2.30% | 2.40% | — | |
| 11/29 | GDP Price Index | 2.20% | 2.10% | 2.20% | — | |
| 11/29 | Core PCE QoQ | 1.30% | 1.40% | 1.30% | — | |
| 11/29 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 1.00% | — | 0.00% | — | |
| 11/29 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | 3.00% | — | -5.40% | — | |
| 11/29 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | |||||
| 11/30 | Initial Jobless Claims | 240k | — | 239k | — | |
| 11/30 | Continuing Claims | 1890k | — | 1904k | — | |
| 11/30 | Personal Income | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — | |
| 11/30 | Personal Spending | 0.30% | — | 1.00% | — | |
| 11/30 | Real Personal Spending | 0.20% | — | 0.60% | — | |
| 11/30 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.40% | — | |
| 11/30 | PCE Deflator YoY | 1.50% | — | 1.60% | — | |
| 11/30 | PCE Core MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — | |
| 11/30 | PCE Core YoY | 1.40% | — | 1.30% | — | |
| 11/30 | Chicago Purchasing Manager | 63 | — | 66.2 | — | |
| 11/30 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 51.7 | — | |
| 12/01 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 54 | — | 53.8 | — | |
| 12/01 | ISM Manufacturing | 58.3 | — | 58.7 | — | |
| 12/01 | ISM Prices Paid | 67 | — | 68.5 | — | |
| 12/01 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 63.4 | — | |
| 12/01 | ISM Employment | — | — | 59.8 | — | |
| 12/01 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.30% | — | |
| 12/01 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 17.50m | — | 18.00m | 17.98m | |
| 12/01 | Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales | 13.40m | — | 14.02m | 13.95m |