Treasury prices and U.S. equity futures are both lower this morning with trade headlines driving activity once again. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, President Trump said it’s “highly unlikely” that he would agree to China’s request to leave current tariffs at 10% (scheduled to rise to 25% in 2019). The comments seemingly contradict Trump’s statement from the Oval Office on 11/16 where he suggested additional tariffs may not be necessary. As such, the general expectation in the markets leading up to the G20 summit in Argentina later this week was for a “cease fire” in the current U.S./China skirmish while negotiations played out, but as everyone should have learned by now, Trump has a tendency to speak off the cuff in interviews (i.e., don’t read too much into it).

President Trump has regularly touted stock market performance as a major success metric for his presidency, and if equities continue to struggle amid trade concerns, some assume that the White House will temper its aggressive stance versus China, similar to what was done with the European Union earlier this year. If not, this headwind for the global economy and risk markets will likely persist.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
11/26Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.180.240.170.14
11/26Dallas Fed Manf. Activity24.529.4
11/27FHFA House Price Index MoM0.40%0.30%
11/27House Price Purchase Index QoQ1.10%
11/27S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.20%0.09%
11/27S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA5.30%5.49%
11/27S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index213.72
11/27S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index205.81
11/27S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA5.77%
11/27Conf. Board Consumer Confidence135.8137.9
11/27Conf. Board Present Situation172.8
11/27Conf. Board Expectations114.6
11/28MBA Mortgage Applications-0.10%
11/28Advance Goods Trade Balance-$77.0b-$76.0b-$76.3b
11/28Wholesale Inventories MoM0.40%0.40%
11/28Retail Inventories MoM0.10%
11/28GDP Annualized QoQ3.60%3.50%
11/28Personal Consumption3.70%4.00%
11/28GDP Price Index1.70%1.70%
11/28Core PCE QoQ1.60%1.60%
11/28New Home Sales575k553k
11/28New Home Sales MoM4.00%-5.50%
11/28Richmond Fed Manufact. Index1615
11/29Personal Income0.40%0.20%
11/29Personal Spending0.40%0.40%
11/29Real Personal Spending0.20%0.30%
11/29PCE Deflator MoM0.20%0.10%
11/29PCE Deflator YoY2.10%2.00%
11/29PCE Core MoM0.20%0.20%
11/29PCE Core YoY1.90%2.00%
11/29Initial Jobless Claims220k224k
11/29Continuing Claims1668k
11/29Bloomberg Consumer Comfort61.3
11/29Pending Home Sales MoM0.50%0.50%
11/29Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-3.40%
11/29FOMC Meeting Minutes
11/30Chicago Purchasing Manager58.558.4
12/03Markit US Manufacturing PMI55.4
12/03Construction Spending MoM0.40%0.00%
12/03ISM Manufacturing5857.7
12/03ISM Employment56.8
12/03ISM Prices Paid71.6
12/03ISM New Orders57.4
12/03Wards Total Vehicle Sales17.40m17.50m