Treasury prices are modestly higher across the curve following a fairly quiet overnight session.  Global equity markets are mixed (Asia generally lower, Europe higher), and S&P 500 futures are currently up 4 points. This morning’s big event is the Senate confirmation hearing for Fed Chair nominee Jerome Powell. Powell’s prepared remarks were released late yesterday, and there are no major surprises. His statement effectively supports the status quo, expecting “interest rates to rise somewhat further” as the Fed continues to normalize policy.  On the tax reform front, the Senate still hopes to vote on its version later this week. The general expectation is that Senate Republicans will be able to secure a majority vote, but it will likely require some modifications to appease some members, including deficit hawks like Bob Corker.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
11/27New Home Sales628k685k667k645k
11/27New Home Sales MoM-6.30%6.20%18.90%14.20%
11/27Dallas Fed Manf. Activity2419.427.6
11/28Advance Goods Trade Balance-$64.9b-$68.3b-$64.1b
11/28Wholesale Inventories MoM0.40%-0.40%0.30%0.10%
11/28Retail Inventories MoM-0.10%-1.00%-0.90%
11/28FHFA House Price Index MoM0.50%0.30%0.70%0.80%
11/28House Price Purchase Index QoQ1.40%1.60%1.70%
11/28S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.30%0.52%0.45%0.44%
11/28S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA6.04%6.19%5.92%5.82%
11/28S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index203.5202.87202.68
11/28S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA6.15%6.07%5.95%
11/28S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index195.51195.05194.82
11/28Conf. Board Consumer Confidence124125.9
11/28Conf. Board Present Situation151.1
11/28Conf. Board Expectations109.1
11/28Richmond Fed Manufact. Index1412
11/29MBA Mortgage Applications0.10%
11/29GDP Annualized QoQ3.20%3.00%
11/29Personal Consumption2.50%2.40%
11/29GDP Price Index2.20%2.20%
11/29Core PCE QoQ1.30%1.30%
11/29Pending Home Sales MoM1.10%0.00%
11/29Pending Home Sales NSA YoY1.20%-5.40%
11/29U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
11/30Initial Jobless Claims240k239k
11/30Continuing Claims1890k1904k
11/30Personal Income0.30%0.40%
11/30Personal Spending0.30%1.00%
11/30Real Personal Spending0.20%0.60%
11/30PCE Deflator MoM0.10%0.40%
11/30PCE Deflator YoY1.50%1.60%
11/30PCE Core MoM0.20%0.10%
11/30PCE Core YoY1.40%1.30%
11/30Chicago Purchasing Manager6366.2
11/30Bloomberg Consumer Comfort51.7
12/01Markit US Manufacturing PMI5453.8
12/01ISM Manufacturing58.358.7
12/01ISM Prices Paid6768.5
12/01ISM New Orders63.4
12/01ISM Employment59.8
12/01Construction Spending MoM0.50%0.30%
12/01Wards Total Vehicle Sales17.50m18.00m17.98m
12/01Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales13.40m14.02m13.95m