Treasury prices are little changed following a relatively quiet overnight session. Major overseas equity markets are mostly higher, and S&P 500 futures are currently up 13 points (+0.5%). A New York Times article suggests a truce between U.S. and Chinese officials is now more likely at this weekend’s G20 summit in Argentina. The agreement would delay new tariffs for several months while a larger deal is negotiated, according to the article sourcing U.S. officials.

Bloomberg is reporting that Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin has privately asked the largest bond dealers their opinions on current Fed policy. More specifically, Mnuchin reportedly asked whether simply focusing on more accelerated balance sheet reduction would be more effective than rate hikes, and the article suggests he received a mixed response. President Trump has broken from tradition by publicly criticizing Fed policy, most recently telling the Wall Street Journal on Monday that “the Fed right now is a much bigger problem than China.”

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

11/26Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.
11/26Dallas Fed Manf. Activity24.529.4
11/27FHFA House Price Index MoM0.40%0.30%
11/27House Price Purchase Index QoQ1.10%
11/27S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.20%0.09%
11/27S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA5.30%5.49%
11/27S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index213.72
11/27S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index205.81
11/27S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA5.77%
11/27Conf. Board Consumer Confidence135.8137.9
11/27Conf. Board Present Situation172.8
11/27Conf. Board Expectations114.6
11/28MBA Mortgage Applications-0.10%
11/28Advance Goods Trade Balance-$77.0b-$76.0b-$76.3b
11/28Wholesale Inventories MoM0.40%0.40%
11/28Retail Inventories MoM0.10%
11/28GDP Annualized QoQ3.60%3.50%
11/28Personal Consumption3.70%4.00%
11/28GDP Price Index1.70%1.70%
11/28Core PCE QoQ1.60%1.60%
11/28New Home Sales575k553k
11/28New Home Sales MoM4.00%-5.50%
11/28Richmond Fed Manufact. Index1615
11/29Personal Income0.40%0.20%
11/29Personal Spending0.40%0.40%
11/29Real Personal Spending0.20%0.30%
11/29PCE Deflator MoM0.20%0.10%
11/29PCE Deflator YoY2.10%2.00%
11/29PCE Core MoM0.20%0.20%
11/29PCE Core YoY1.90%2.00%
11/29Initial Jobless Claims220k224k
11/29Continuing Claims1668k
11/29Bloomberg Consumer Comfort61.3
11/29Pending Home Sales MoM0.50%0.50%
11/29Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-3.40%
11/29FOMC Meeting Minutes
11/30Chicago Purchasing Manager58.558.4
12/03Markit US Manufacturing PMI55.4
12/03Construction Spending MoM0.40%0.00%
12/03ISM Manufacturing5857.7
12/03ISM Employment56.8
12/03ISM Prices Paid71.6
12/03ISM New Orders57.4
12/03Wards Total Vehicle Sales17.40m17.50m