Treasury prices are little changed following a relatively quiet overnight session. Major overseas equity markets are mostly higher, and S&P 500 futures are currently up 13 points (+0.5%). A New York Times article suggests a truce between U.S. and Chinese officials is now more likely at this weekend’s G20 summit in Argentina. The agreement would delay new tariffs for several months while a larger deal is negotiated, according to the article sourcing U.S. officials.
Bloomberg is reporting that Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin has privately asked the largest bond dealers their opinions on current Fed policy. More specifically, Mnuchin reportedly asked whether simply focusing on more accelerated balance sheet reduction would be more effective than rate hikes, and the article suggests he received a mixed response. President Trump has broken from tradition by publicly criticizing Fed policy, most recently telling the Wall Street Journal on Monday that “the Fed right now is a much bigger problem than China.”
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 11/26 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | 0.18 | 0.24 | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| 11/26 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | 24.5 | — | 29.4 | — |
| 11/27 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 11/27 | House Price Purchase Index QoQ | — | — | 1.10% | — |
| 11/27 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.20% | — | 0.09% | — |
| 11/27 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 5.30% | — | 5.49% | — |
| 11/27 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index | — | — | 213.72 | — |
| 11/27 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index | — | — | 205.81 | — |
| 11/27 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 5.77% | — |
| 11/27 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 135.8 | — | 137.9 | — |
| 11/27 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 172.8 | — |
| 11/27 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 114.6 | — |
| 11/28 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -0.10% | — |
| 11/28 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$77.0b | — | -$76.0b | -$76.3b |
| 11/28 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 11/28 | Retail Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 11/28 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 3.60% | — | 3.50% | — |
| 11/28 | Personal Consumption | 3.70% | — | 4.00% | — |
| 11/28 | GDP Price Index | 1.70% | — | 1.70% | — |
| 11/28 | Core PCE QoQ | 1.60% | — | 1.60% | — |
| 11/28 | New Home Sales | 575k | — | 553k | — |
| 11/28 | New Home Sales MoM | 4.00% | — | -5.50% | — |
| 11/28 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 16 | — | 15 | — |
| 11/29 | Personal Income | 0.40% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 11/29 | Personal Spending | 0.40% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 11/29 | Real Personal Spending | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 11/29 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 11/29 | PCE Deflator YoY | 2.10% | — | 2.00% | — |
| 11/29 | PCE Core MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 11/29 | PCE Core YoY | 1.90% | — | 2.00% | — |
| 11/29 | Initial Jobless Claims | 220k | — | 224k | — |
| 11/29 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1668k | — |
| 11/29 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 61.3 | — |
| 11/29 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 11/29 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | -3.40% | — |
| 11/29 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — | — |
| 11/30 | Chicago Purchasing Manager | 58.5 | — | 58.4 | — |
| 12/03 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | — | — | 55.4 | — |
| 12/03 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 12/03 | ISM Manufacturing | 58 | — | 57.7 | — |
| 12/03 | ISM Employment | — | — | 56.8 | — |
| 12/03 | ISM Prices Paid | — | — | 71.6 | — |
| 12/03 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 57.4 | — |
| 12/03 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 17.40m | — | 17.50m | — |