The Treasury curve is lower and flatter this morning on the back of Fed Chair Powell’s dovish comments yesterday afternoon, with the 10-year nearly hitting 3.00% and the spread between the 10-year and the 2-year 3 basis points lower. In his comments yesterday, Chairman Powell stated that interest rates are “just below” the neutral level causing the market to think that the Fed may soon hit pause on its rate normalization plan.

The G20 will take place this weekend in Buenos Aires and the market will be focused on the meeting President Trump and President Xi to see if the two leaders can reach a peace agreement in the current trade war. Any positive move should spur a rally in risk-assets, but given the change in relationship between the two nations over the past year, the move would most likely be short lived.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

11/26Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.
11/26Dallas Fed Manf. Activity24.529.4
11/27FHFA House Price Index MoM0.40%0.30%
11/27House Price Purchase Index QoQ1.10%
11/27S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.20%0.09%
11/27S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA5.30%5.49%
11/27S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index213.72
11/27S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index205.81
11/27S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA5.77%
11/27Conf. Board Consumer Confidence135.8137.9
11/27Conf. Board Present Situation172.8
11/27Conf. Board Expectations114.6
11/28MBA Mortgage Applications-0.10%
11/28Advance Goods Trade Balance-$77.0b-$76.0b-$76.3b
11/28Wholesale Inventories MoM0.40%0.40%
11/28Retail Inventories MoM0.10%
11/28GDP Annualized QoQ3.60%3.50%
11/28Personal Consumption3.70%4.00%
11/28GDP Price Index1.70%1.70%
11/28Core PCE QoQ1.60%1.60%
11/28New Home Sales575k553k
11/28New Home Sales MoM4.00%-5.50%
11/28Richmond Fed Manufact. Index1615
11/29Personal Income0.40%0.20%
11/29Personal Spending0.40%0.40%
11/29Real Personal Spending0.20%0.30%
11/29PCE Deflator MoM0.20%0.10%
11/29PCE Deflator YoY2.10%2.00%
11/29PCE Core MoM0.20%0.20%
11/29PCE Core YoY1.90%2.00%
11/29Initial Jobless Claims220k224k
11/29Continuing Claims1668k
11/29Bloomberg Consumer Comfort61.3
11/29Pending Home Sales MoM0.50%0.50%
11/29Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-3.40%
11/29FOMC Meeting Minutes
11/30Chicago Purchasing Manager58.558.4
12/03Markit US Manufacturing PMI55.4
12/03Construction Spending MoM0.40%0.00%
12/03ISM Manufacturing5857.7
12/03ISM Employment56.8
12/03ISM Prices Paid71.6
12/03ISM New Orders57.4
12/03Wards Total Vehicle Sales17.40m17.50m