November 29, 2021 Headlines

Risk markets are rebounding today following Friday’s Omicron scare that sent U.S. stocks down more than 2% and term Treasury yields down 14-18 basis points. Yields are 5-7 bps higher to start the morning, and S&P 500 futures are up 0.76% as of 8:11am EST. Implied volatility in the Treasury market, as measured by the MOVE Index, is now at the highest level since March 30, 2020. With no major data releases scheduled for today, market focus will be directed to Fed Chair Powell’s speech this afternoon at an event in New York, which will include an appearance from New York Fed President John Williams. This week’s data calendar is headlined by the November jobs report (Friday), and Powell will also appear before the Senate (tomorrow) and House (Wednesday) to provide updates on CARES Act relief.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
11/29/21	Pending Home Sales MoM	0.80%	—	-2.30%	—
11/29/21	Pending Home Sales NSA YoY	—	—	-7.20%	—
11/29/21	Dallas Fed Manf. Activity	17	—	14.6	—
11/30/21	FHFA House Price Index MoM	1.20%	—	1.00%	—
11/30/21	House Price Purchase Index QoQ	—	—	4.90%	—
11/30/21	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA	1.25%	—	1.17%	—
11/30/21	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA	19.35%	—	19.66%	—
11/30/21	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA	—	—	19.84%	—
11/30/21	MNI Chicago PMI	67	—	68.4	—
11/30/21	Conf. Board Consumer Confidence	110.7	—	113.8	—
11/30/21	Conf. Board Present Situation	—	—	147.4	—
11/30/21	Conf. Board Expectations	—	—	91.3	—
12/01/21	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	1.80%	—
12/01/21	ADP Employment Change	525k	—	571k	—
12/01/21	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	59.1	—	59.1	—
12/01/21	Construction Spending MoM	0.40%	—	-0.50%	—
12/01/21	ISM Manufacturing	61.1	—	60.8	—
12/01/21	ISM Prices Paid	85.8	—	85.7	—
12/01/21	ISM New Orders	—	—	59.8	—
12/01/21	ISM Employment	—	—	52	—
12/01/21	U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
12/01/21	Wards Total Vehicle Sales	13.35m	—	12.99m	—
12/02/21	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	—	-71.70%	—
12/02/21	Initial Jobless Claims	250k	—	199k	—
12/02/21	Continuing Claims	2000k	—	2049k	—
12/02/21	Langer Consumer Comfort	—	—	52.2	—
12/03/21	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	—	235k	—
12/03/21	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	535k	—	531k	—
12/03/21	Change in Private Payrolls	525k	—	604k	—
12/03/21	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	45k	—	60k	—
12/03/21	Unemployment Rate	4.50%	—	4.60%	—
12/03/21	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	0.40%	—	0.40%	—
12/03/21	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	5.00%	—	4.90%	—
12/03/21	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.7	—	34.7	—
12/03/21	Labor Force Participation Rate	61.70%	—	61.60%	—
12/03/21	Underemployment Rate	—	—	8.30%	—
12/03/21	Markit US Services PMI	57	—	57	—
12/03/21	Markit US Composite PMI	—	—	56.5	—
12/03/21	ISM Services Index	65	—	66.7	—
12/03/21	Factory Orders	0.50%	—	0.20%	—
12/03/21	Factory Orders Ex Trans	—	—	0.70%	—
12/03/21	Durable Goods Orders	—	—	-0.50%	—
12/03/21	Durables Ex Transportation	—	—	0.50%	—
12/03/21	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	—	—	0.60%	—
12/03/21	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	—	0.30%	—

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