Risk markets are rebounding today following Friday’s Omicron scare that sent U.S. stocks down more than 2% and term Treasury yields down 14-18 basis points. Yields are 5-7 bps higher to start the morning, and S&P 500 futures are up 0.76% as of 8:11am EST. Implied volatility in the Treasury market, as measured by the MOVE Index, is now at the highest level since March 30, 2020. With no major data releases scheduled for today, market focus will be directed to Fed Chair Powell’s speech this afternoon at an event in New York, which will include an appearance from New York Fed President John Williams. This week’s data calendar is headlined by the November jobs report (Friday), and Powell will also appear before the Senate (tomorrow) and House (Wednesday) to provide updates on CARES Act relief.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
11/29/21 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 0.80% | — | -2.30% | — |
11/29/21 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | -7.20% | — |
11/29/21 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | 17 | — | 14.6 | — |
11/30/21 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 1.20% | — | 1.00% | — |
11/30/21 | House Price Purchase Index QoQ | — | — | 4.90% | — |
11/30/21 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 1.25% | — | 1.17% | — |
11/30/21 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 19.35% | — | 19.66% | — |
11/30/21 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 19.84% | — |
11/30/21 | MNI Chicago PMI | 67 | — | 68.4 | — |
11/30/21 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 110.7 | — | 113.8 | — |
11/30/21 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 147.4 | — |
11/30/21 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 91.3 | — |
12/01/21 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 1.80% | — |
12/01/21 | ADP Employment Change | 525k | — | 571k | — |
12/01/21 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 59.1 | — | 59.1 | — |
12/01/21 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.40% | — | -0.50% | — |
12/01/21 | ISM Manufacturing | 61.1 | — | 60.8 | — |
12/01/21 | ISM Prices Paid | 85.8 | — | 85.7 | — |
12/01/21 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 59.8 | — |
12/01/21 | ISM Employment | — | — | 52 | — |
12/01/21 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
12/01/21 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 13.35m | — | 12.99m | — |
12/02/21 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | -71.70% | — |
12/02/21 | Initial Jobless Claims | 250k | — | 199k | — |
12/02/21 | Continuing Claims | 2000k | — | 2049k | — |
12/02/21 | Langer Consumer Comfort | — | — | 52.2 | — |
12/03/21 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | 235k | — |
12/03/21 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 535k | — | 531k | — |
12/03/21 | Change in Private Payrolls | 525k | — | 604k | — |
12/03/21 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 45k | — | 60k | — |
12/03/21 | Unemployment Rate | 4.50% | — | 4.60% | — |
12/03/21 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.40% | — |
12/03/21 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 5.00% | — | 4.90% | — |
12/03/21 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.7 | — | 34.7 | — |
12/03/21 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 61.70% | — | 61.60% | — |
12/03/21 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 8.30% | — |
12/03/21 | Markit US Services PMI | 57 | — | 57 | — |
12/03/21 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 56.5 | — |
12/03/21 | ISM Services Index | 65 | — | 66.7 | — |
12/03/21 | Factory Orders | 0.50% | — | 0.20% | — |
12/03/21 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.70% | — |
12/03/21 | Durable Goods Orders | — | — | -0.50% | — |
12/03/21 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | 0.50% | — |
12/03/21 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.60% | — |
12/03/21 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.30% | — |
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