November 3, 2020 Headlines

The day has finally arrived, and with any luck, we will know the election results tomorrow morning. Perhaps that’s an overly optimistic position, but if anything, at least we will have less political adds to watch going forward. Treasury prices are drifting lower as risk assets trade higher this morning, with S&P 500 futures up more than 1%. The 10-year yield is up to 0.88% this morning, the highest since early June, and the 2-year/10-year spread is holding at 71 bps, the steepest since February 2018.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
11/02/20Markit US Manufacturing PMI53.353.453.3
11/02/20ISM Manufacturing5659.355.4
11/02/20ISM New Orders6267.960.2
11/02/20ISM Prices Paid61.565.562.8
11/02/20ISM Employment53.249.6
11/02/20Construction Spending MoM1.00%0.30%1.40%0.80%
11/03/20Factory Orders1.00%0.70%
11/03/20Factory Orders Ex Trans0.60%0.70%
11/03/20Durable Goods Orders1.90%1.90%
11/03/20Durables Ex Transportation0.80%0.80%
11/03/20Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air1.00%1.00%
11/03/20Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.30%
11/03/20Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.50m16.34m
11/04/20MBA Mortgage Applications1.70%
11/04/20ADP Employment Change650k749k
11/04/20Trade Balance-$63.9b-$67.1b
11/04/20Markit US Services PMI5656
11/04/20Markit US Composite PMI55.5
11/04/20ISM Services Index57.557.8
11/05/20Challenger Job Cuts YoY185.90%
11/05/20Initial Jobless Claims735k751k
11/05/20Continuing Claims7200k7756k
11/05/20Nonfarm Productivity5.60%10.10%
11/05/20Unit Labor Costs-10.80%9.00%
11/05/20Bloomberg Consumer Comfort46.3
11/05/20FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)0.25%0.25%
11/05/20FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)0.00%0.00%
11/05/20Interest Rate on Excess Reserves0.10%0.10%
11/06/20Change in Nonfarm Payrolls600k661k
11/06/20Two-Month Payroll Net Revision145k
11/06/20Change in Private Payrolls700k877k
11/06/20Change in Manufact. Payrolls52k66k
11/06/20Unemployment Rate7.60%7.90%
11/06/20Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.20%0.10%
11/06/20Average Hourly Earnings YoY4.50%4.70%
11/06/20Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.734.7
11/06/20Labor Force Participation Rate61.50%61.40%
11/06/20Underemployment Rate12.80%
11/06/20Wholesale Inventories MoM-0.10%-0.10%
11/06/20Wholesale Trade Sales MoM1.10%1.40%
11/06/20Consumer Credit$7.750b-$7.220b

 

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