November 3, 2021 Headlines

The curve is flattening ahead of today’s Fed meeting where the central bank is expected to announce the start of its pull back from Treasury and MBS markets. The general consensus is that the Fed will scale back its net purchases of Treasuries and MBS by $15bn ($10bn UST and $5bn MBS) a month. At this pace the Fed will be done by the middle of next year. Given how well the taper has been communicated, many participants are more interested in whether or not the Fed provides any signals as to when rate hikes will start. The recent pace of inflation has put Fed leaders under pressure and the market is currently pricing in faster-than-expected rate hikes.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
11/01/21Markit US Manufacturing PMI59.258.459.2
11/01/21Construction Spending MoM0.30%-0.50%0.00%0.10%
11/01/21ISM Manufacturing60.560.861.1
11/01/21ISM Prices Paid8285.781.2
11/01/21ISM New Orders64.259.866.7
11/01/21ISM Employment515250.2
11/02/21Wards Total Vehicle Sales12.50m12.99m12.18m
11/03/21MBA Mortgage Applications-3.30%0.30%
11/03/21ADP Employment Change400k571k568k523k
11/03/21Markit US Composite PMI57.3
11/03/21Markit US Services PMI58.258.2
11/03/21ISM Services Index6261.9
11/03/21Factory Orders0.10%1.20%
11/03/21Factory Orders Ex Trans0.00%0.50%
11/03/21Durable Goods Orders-0.40%-0.40%
11/03/21Durables Ex Transportation0.40%0.40%
11/03/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.80%
11/03/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air1.40%
11/03/21FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)0.00%0.00%
11/03/21FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)0.25%0.25%
11/03/21Interest on Reserve Balances Rate0.15%0.15%
11/04/21Challenger Job Cuts YoY-84.90%
11/04/21Initial Jobless Claims275k281k
11/04/21Continuing Claims2147k2243k
11/04/21Nonfarm Productivity-3.10%2.10%
11/04/21Unit Labor Costs7.00%1.30%
11/04/21Trade Balance-$80.2b-$73.3b
11/04/21Langer Consumer Comfort47.9
11/05/21Change in Nonfarm Payrolls450k194k
11/05/21Two-Month Payroll Net Revision169k
11/05/21Change in Private Payrolls408k317k
11/05/21Change in Manufact. Payrolls29k26k
11/05/21Unemployment Rate4.70%4.80%
11/05/21Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.40%0.60%
11/05/21Average Hourly Earnings YoY4.90%4.60%
11/05/21Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.834.8
11/05/21Labor Force Participation Rate61.80%61.60%
11/05/21Underemployment Rate8.50%
11/05/21Consumer Credit$16.000b$14.379b

 

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