Treasuries are essentially unchanged this morning, equities and oil both rallied in the overnight session, with oil’s upward moved prompted by news that OPEC will extend its production cuts until the end of 2018. Initial jobless claims fell to 238,000 from last week’s reading of 240,000, while the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose to 1,957k from 1,904k.  Personal income came in better than expected at 0.4% vs 0.3% and given the 0.4% increase last month, represents the best consecutive gains since the beginning of this year. With more money in their pockets from rising incomes, stock prices, and home prices, American households should have the requisite purchasing power to drive growth going into the holiday season.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
11/27New Home Sales628k685k667k645k
11/27New Home Sales MoM-6.30%6.20%18.90%14.20%
11/27Dallas Fed Manf. Activity2419.427.6
11/28Advance Goods Trade Balance-$64.9b-$68.3b-$64.1b
11/28Wholesale Inventories MoM0.40%-0.40%0.30%0.10%
11/28Retail Inventories MoM-0.10%-1.00%-0.90%
11/28FHFA House Price Index MoM0.50%0.30%0.70%0.80%
11/28House Price Purchase Index QoQ1.40%1.60%1.70%
11/28S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.30%0.52%0.45%0.44%
11/28S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA6.04%6.19%5.92%5.82%
11/28S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index203.5202.87202.68
11/28S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA6.15%6.07%5.95%
11/28S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index195.51195.05194.82
11/28Conf. Board Consumer Confidence124129.5125.9126.2
11/28Conf. Board Present Situation153.9151.1152
11/28Conf. Board Expectations113.3109.1109
11/28Richmond Fed Manufact. Index143012
11/29MBA Mortgage Applications-3.10%0.10%
11/29GDP Annualized QoQ3.20%3.30%3.00%
11/29Personal Consumption2.50%2.30%2.40%
11/29GDP Price Index2.20%2.10%2.20%
11/29Core PCE QoQ1.30%1.40%1.30%
11/29Pending Home Sales MoM1.00%3.50%0.00%-0.40%
11/29Pending Home Sales NSA YoY3.00%1.20%-5.40%-5.70%
11/29U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
11/30Initial Jobless Claims240k238k239k240k
11/30Continuing Claims1890k1957k1904k1915k
11/30Personal Income0.30%0.40%0.40%
11/30Personal Spending0.30%0.30%1.00%0.90%
11/30Real Personal Spending0.20%0.10%0.60%0.50%
11/30PCE Deflator MoM0.10%0.10%0.40%
11/30PCE Deflator YoY1.50%1.60%1.60%1.70%
11/30PCE Core MoM0.20%0.20%0.10%0.20%
11/30PCE Core YoY1.40%1.40%1.30%1.40%
11/30Chicago Purchasing Manager6366.2
11/30Bloomberg Consumer Comfort51.7
12/01Markit US Manufacturing PMI5453.8
12/01ISM Manufacturing58.358.7
12/01ISM Prices Paid6768.5
12/01ISM New Orders63.4
12/01ISM Employment59.8
12/01Construction Spending MoM0.50%0.30%
12/01Wards Total Vehicle Sales17.50m18.00m17.98m
12/01Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales13.40m14.02m13.95m