Treasury prices are higher this morning for intermediate and long maturities, but financial markets, in general, are quiet this morning as investors await an announcement from this weekend’s G20 meeting (U.S./China trade). The minutes of the November FOMC meeting were perceived to be on the dovish end of the spectrum. While participants maintained a positive economic outlook and desire for continued “gradual” normalization, the minutes conveyed an emphasis from all participants to base policy decisions on incoming data. More specifically, they may remove the language from the official statement that expresses expectations for “further gradual increases” in the funds rate and replace it with an emphasis on data dependency. In other words, the Fed is effectively saying “don’t pay so much attention to the dots.” The minutes also foreshadowed another downward technical adjustment to the interest on excess reserves (IOER) rate in December (e.g., IOER is increased by 20 bps while the target range rises 25 bps).

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
11/26 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 0.18 0.24 0.17 0.14
11/26 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 24.5 29.4
11/27 FHFA House Price Index MoM 0.40% 0.30%
11/27 House Price Purchase Index QoQ 1.10%
11/27 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 0.20% 0.09%
11/27 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 5.30% 5.49%
11/27 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index 213.72
11/27 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index 205.81
11/27 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA 5.77%
11/27 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 135.8 137.9
11/27 Conf. Board Present Situation 172.8
11/27 Conf. Board Expectations 114.6
11/28 MBA Mortgage Applications -0.10%
11/28 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$77.0b -$76.0b -$76.3b
11/28 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.40% 0.40%
11/28 Retail Inventories MoM 0.10%
11/28 GDP Annualized QoQ 3.60% 3.50%
11/28 Personal Consumption 3.70% 4.00%
11/28 GDP Price Index 1.70% 1.70%
11/28 Core PCE QoQ 1.60% 1.60%
11/28 New Home Sales 575k 553k
11/28 New Home Sales MoM 4.00% -5.50%
11/28 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 16 15
11/29 Personal Income 0.40% 0.20%
11/29 Personal Spending 0.40% 0.40%
11/29 Real Personal Spending 0.20% 0.30%
11/29 PCE Deflator MoM 0.20% 0.10%
11/29 PCE Deflator YoY 2.10% 2.00%
11/29 PCE Core MoM 0.20% 0.20%
11/29 PCE Core YoY 1.90% 2.00%
11/29 Initial Jobless Claims 220k 224k
11/29 Continuing Claims 1668k
11/29 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 61.3
11/29 Pending Home Sales MoM 0.50% 0.50%
11/29 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY -3.40%
11/29 FOMC Meeting Minutes
11/30 Chicago Purchasing Manager 58.5 58.4
12/03 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 55.4
12/03 Construction Spending MoM 0.40% 0.00%
12/03 ISM Manufacturing 58 57.7
12/03 ISM Employment 56.8
12/03 ISM Prices Paid 71.6
12/03 ISM New Orders 57.4
12/03 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 17.40m 17.50m