November 4, 2019 Headlines

Positive trade headlines are boosting risk assets and pushing Treasury prices lower this morning.  Yields are up 3-6 bps, and the curve is modestly steeper. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross expressed optimism that a phase one trade deal with China will get done this month, and he also said that a tariff on automobiles from the European Union may not be necessary. This week’s economic data calendar is relatively light, but there will be several Fed leaders speaking this week, beginning with Mary Daly (San Francisco Fed) later today.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

11/4/2019Factory Orders-0.50%-0.10%
11/4/2019Factory Orders Ex Trans0.00%
11/4/2019Durable Goods Orders-1.10%-1.10%
11/4/2019Durables Ex Transportation-0.30%-0.30%
11/4/2019Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.50%
11/4/2019Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-0.70%
11/5/2019Trade Balance-$52.4b-$54.9b
11/5/2019Markit US Services PMI5151
11/5/2019Markit US Composite PMI51.2
11/5/2019JOLTS Job Openings70637051
11/5/2019ISM Non-Manufacturing Index53.552.6
11/5/2019Mortgage Delinquencies4.53%
11/5/2019MBA Mortgage Foreclosures0.90%
11/6/2019MBA Mortgage Applications0.60%
11/6/2019Nonfarm Productivity0.90%2.30%
11/6/2019Unit Labor Costs2.20%2.60%
11/7/2019Initial Jobless Claims215k218k
11/7/2019Continuing Claims1680k1690k
11/7/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort61
11/7/2019Consumer Credit$15.000b$17.901b
11/8/2019Bloomberg Nov. United States Economic Survey
11/8/2019Wholesale Inventories MoM-0.30%-0.30%
11/8/2019Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.20%0.00%
11/8/2019U. of Mich. Sentiment95.595.5
11/8/2019U. of Mich. Current Conditions113.2
11/8/2019U. of Mich. Expectations84.2
11/8/2019U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.50%
11/8/2019U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.30%

























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