November 4, 2020 Headlines

The curve is slightly lower and flatter this morning as the market and the rest of the country await the results of the presidential election. Eyes are currently on close races in five battleground states which could take days to count all of votes, particularly absentee ballots which were due to the pandemic. The reaction from the market stems from concerns that a divided government will have difficulty passing a new round of stimulus.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
11/02/20 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 53.3 53.4 53.3 —
11/02/20 ISM Manufacturing 56 59.3 55.4 —
11/02/20 ISM New Orders 62 67.9 60.2 —
11/02/20 ISM Prices Paid 61.5 65.5 62.8 —
11/02/20 ISM Employment — 53.2 49.6 —
11/02/20 Construction Spending MoM 1.00% 0.30% 1.40% 0.80%
11/03/20 Factory Orders 1.00% 1.10% 0.70% 0.60%
11/03/20 Factory Orders Ex Trans 0.60% 0.50% 0.70% 0.90%
11/03/20 Durable Goods Orders 1.90% 1.90% 1.90% —
11/03/20 Durables Ex Transportation 0.80% 0.90% 0.80% —
11/03/20 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% —
11/03/20 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air — 0.50% 0.30% —
11/03/20 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 16.50m 16.21m 16.34m —
11/04/20 MBA Mortgage Applications — 3.80% 1.70% —
11/04/20 ADP Employment Change 643k 365k 749k 753k
11/04/20 Trade Balance -$63.9b -$63.9b -$67.1b -$67.0b
11/04/20 Markit US Services PMI 56 — 56 —
11/04/20 Markit US Composite PMI — — 55.5 —
11/04/20 ISM Services Index 57.5 — 57.8 —
11/05/20 Challenger Job Cuts YoY — — 185.90% —
11/05/20 Initial Jobless Claims 735k — 751k —
11/05/20 Continuing Claims 7200k — 7756k —
11/05/20 Nonfarm Productivity 5.60% — 10.10% —
11/05/20 Unit Labor Costs -11.00% — 9.00% —
11/05/20 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort — — 46.3 —
11/05/20 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 0.25% — 0.25% —
11/05/20 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 0.00% — 0.00% —
11/05/20 Interest Rate on Excess Reserves 0.10% — 0.10% —
11/06/20 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision — — — —
11/06/20 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 600k — 661k —
11/06/20 Change in Private Payrolls 700k — 877k —
11/06/20 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 54k — 66k —
11/06/20 Unemployment Rate 7.60% — 7.90% —
11/06/20 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.20% — 0.10% —
11/06/20 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 4.50% — 4.70% —
11/06/20 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.7 — 34.7 —
11/06/20 Labor Force Participation Rate 61.50% — 61.40% —
11/06/20 Underemployment Rate — — 12.80% —
11/06/20 Wholesale Inventories MoM -0.10% — -0.10% —
11/06/20 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 1.10% — 1.40% —
11/06/20 Consumer Credit $8.000b — -$7.220b —

 

 

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