November 4, 2021 Headlines

Treasury yields are lower across the curve as global markets digest yesterday’s FOMC meeting. There were no major surprises from yesterday’s official statement or Powell press conference. Tapering will begin in November at a pace of $15 billion per month, as the Fed had telegraphed ever since the September meeting. In the official statement, the FOMC’s characterization of inflation risks was unchanged, but it was more descriptive of why/how it believes current price pressures are largely transitory. During the press conference, Powell was somewhat emphatic that the Fed won’t hesitate to respond to inflation with rate hikes if they deem it necessary, but it’s currently not even in the discussion mix. His clear message was that it is time to taper; not time to hike. The Fed is sticking to the script, but it’s certainly not the end of the transitory vs. non-transitory debate for financial markets.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
11/01/21Markit US Manufacturing PMI59.258.459.2
11/01/21Construction Spending MoM0.30%-0.50%0.00%0.10%
11/01/21ISM Manufacturing60.560.861.1
11/01/21ISM Prices Paid8285.781.2
11/01/21ISM New Orders64.259.866.7
11/01/21ISM Employment515250.2
11/02/21Wards Total Vehicle Sales12.50m12.99m12.18m
11/03/21MBA Mortgage Applications-3.30%0.30%
11/03/21ADP Employment Change400k571k568k523k
11/03/21Markit US Composite PMI57.657.3
11/03/21Markit US Services PMI58.258.758.2
11/03/21ISM Services Index6266.761.9
11/03/21Factory Orders0.10%0.20%1.20%1.00%
11/03/21Factory Orders Ex Trans0.00%0.70%0.50%
11/03/21Durable Goods Orders-0.40%-0.30%-0.40%
11/03/21Durables Ex Transportation0.40%0.50%0.40%
11/03/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.80%0.80%
11/03/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air1.40%1.40%
11/03/21FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)0.00%0.00%0.00%
11/03/21FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)0.25%0.25%0.25%
11/03/21Interest on Reserve Balances Rate0.15%0.15%0.15%
11/04/21Challenger Job Cuts YoY-71.70%-84.90%
11/04/21Initial Jobless Claims275k269k281k283k
11/04/21Continuing Claims2150k2105k2243k2239k
11/04/21Nonfarm Productivity-3.10%-5.00%2.10%2.40%
11/04/21Unit Labor Costs7.00%8.30%1.30%1.10%
11/04/21Trade Balance-$80.2b-$80.9b-$73.3b-$72.8b
11/04/21Langer Consumer Comfort47.9
11/05/21Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
11/05/21Change in Nonfarm Payrolls450k194k
11/05/21Change in Private Payrolls420k317k
11/05/21Change in Manufact. Payrolls30k26k
11/05/21Unemployment Rate4.70%4.80%
11/05/21Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.40%0.60%
11/05/21Average Hourly Earnings YoY4.90%4.60%
11/05/21Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.834.8
11/05/21Labor Force Participation Rate61.80%61.60%
11/05/21Underemployment Rate8.50%
11/05/21Consumer Credit$16.000b$14.379b

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