November 4, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields are leaking higher following the release of another solid jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls added 261,000 jobs in October versus expectations of a 193,000 gain, and the prior month was revised higher by more than 50,000 jobs. The unemployment rate did move up by 20 basis points to 3.7%, due to both a 328,000 decline in household employment and a small decrease in the official labor force, the latter of which contributed to a decline in the labor force participation rate to 62.2%. Average hourly earnings came in above expectations at 0.4% m/m, and the year-over-year metric fell 30 bps from September to 4.7%, as expected (base effect). The labor market is still showing no signs of slowing, which keeps the Fed is ultra-hawkish mode. However, they still have another jobs report and two CPI reports prior to the next FOMC meeting on December 14. If CPI surprises to the upside next week, the market is more likely to price for another 75 bp hike in December, barring different guidance from Fed leaders in the coming weeks.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
11/4/2022Two-Month Payroll Net Revision—29k——
11/4/2022Change in Nonfarm Payrolls193k261k263k315k
11/4/2022Change in Private Payrolls200k233k288k319k
11/4/2022Change in Manufact. Payrolls12k32k22k23k
11/4/2022Unemployment Rate3.60%3.70%3.50%—
11/4/2022Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.40%0.30%—
11/4/2022Average Hourly Earnings YoY4.70%4.70%5.00%—
11/4/2022Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.534.534.5—
11/4/2022Labor Force Participation Rate62.30%62.20%62.30%—
11/4/2022Underemployment Rate—6.80%6.70%—
11/7/2022Consumer Credit$32.000b—$32.241b—
11/8/2022NFIB Small Business Optimism91.5—92.1—
11/9/2022MBA Mortgage Applications——-0.50%—
11/9/2022Wholesale Trade Sales MoM——0.10%—
11/9/2022Wholesale Inventories MoM0.80%—0.80%—
11/10/2022CPI MoM0.70%—0.40%—
11/10/2022CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.50%—0.60%—
11/10/2022CPI YoY8.00%—8.20%—
11/10/2022CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY6.60%—6.60%—
11/10/2022CPI Index NSA298.713—296.808—
11/10/2022CPI Core Index SA——298.66—
11/10/2022Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY——-3.00%—
11/10/2022Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY——-3.80%—
11/10/2022Initial Jobless Claims——217k—
11/10/2022Continuing Claims——1485k—
11/10/2022Monthly Budget Statement——-$429.7b—
11/11/2022U. of Mich. Sentiment59.6—59.9—
11/11/2022U. of Mich. Current Conditions——65.6—
11/11/2022U. of Mich. Expectations——56.2—
11/11/2022U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation——5.00%—
11/11/2022U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation——2.90%—

 

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