November 4, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields are leaking higher following the release of another solid jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls added 261,000 jobs in October versus expectations of a 193,000 gain, and the prior month was revised higher by more than 50,000 jobs. The unemployment rate did move up by 20 basis points to 3.7%, due to both a 328,000 decline in household employment and a small decrease in the official labor force, the latter of which contributed to a decline in the labor force participation rate to 62.2%. Average hourly earnings came in above expectations at 0.4% m/m, and the year-over-year metric fell 30 bps from September to 4.7%, as expected (base effect). The labor market is still showing no signs of slowing, which keeps the Fed is ultra-hawkish mode. However, they still have another jobs report and two CPI reports prior to the next FOMC meeting on December 14. If CPI surprises to the upside next week, the market is more likely to price for another 75 bp hike in December, barring different guidance from Fed leaders in the coming weeks.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

11/4/2022Two-Month Payroll Net Revision29k
11/4/2022Change in Nonfarm Payrolls193k261k263k315k
11/4/2022Change in Private Payrolls200k233k288k319k
11/4/2022Change in Manufact. Payrolls12k32k22k23k
11/4/2022Unemployment Rate3.60%3.70%3.50%
11/4/2022Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.40%0.30%
11/4/2022Average Hourly Earnings YoY4.70%4.70%5.00%
11/4/2022Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.534.534.5
11/4/2022Labor Force Participation Rate62.30%62.20%62.30%
11/4/2022Underemployment Rate6.80%6.70%
11/7/2022Consumer Credit$32.000b$32.241b
11/8/2022NFIB Small Business Optimism91.592.1
11/9/2022MBA Mortgage Applications-0.50%
11/9/2022Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.10%
11/9/2022Wholesale Inventories MoM0.80%0.80%
11/10/2022CPI MoM0.70%0.40%
11/10/2022CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.50%0.60%
11/10/2022CPI YoY8.00%8.20%
11/10/2022CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY6.60%6.60%
11/10/2022CPI Index NSA298.713296.808
11/10/2022CPI Core Index SA298.66
11/10/2022Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-3.00%
11/10/2022Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-3.80%
11/10/2022Initial Jobless Claims217k
11/10/2022Continuing Claims1485k
11/10/2022Monthly Budget Statement-$429.7b
11/11/2022U. of Mich. Sentiment59.659.9
11/11/2022U. of Mich. Current Conditions65.6
11/11/2022U. of Mich. Expectations56.2
11/11/2022U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation5.00%
11/11/2022U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.90%


Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.