November 5, 2019 Headlines

Treasury yields are up another 4-6 bps this morning as the tone in risk market improves further. Equity markets continue to trade favorably in anticipation of a phase one U.S./China trade deal this month, with reports surfacing overnight that U.S. officials are considering (or at least debating) removing tariffs on $112 billion of Chinese imports. A separate article suggested that China is also leaning on the U.S. to reduce the 25% tariff on $250 billion of Chinese imports that went into effect last year (in addition to China’s demands that the upcoming December 15 tariffs are taken on the table entirely). If these concessions are accepted by U.S. officials, one wonders what China is willing to offer other than buying more U.S. agricultural products.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
11/4/2019 Factory Orders -0.50% -0.60% -0.10%
11/4/2019 Factory Orders Ex Trans -0.10% 0.00% -0.20%
11/4/2019 Durable Goods Orders -1.10% -1.20% -1.10% -1.20%
11/4/2019 Durables Ex Transportation -0.30% -0.40% -0.30% -0.40%
11/4/2019 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air -0.60% -0.50% -0.60%
11/4/2019 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air -0.70% -0.70%
11/5/2019 Trade Balance -$52.4b -$52.5b -$54.9b -$55.0b
11/5/2019 Markit US Services PMI 51 51
11/5/2019 Markit US Composite PMI 51.2
11/5/2019 JOLTS Job Openings 7063 7051
11/5/2019 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 53.5 52.6
11/6/2019 MBA Mortgage Applications 0.60%
11/6/2019 Nonfarm Productivity 0.90% 2.30%
11/6/2019 Unit Labor Costs 2.30% 2.60%
11/7/2019 Initial Jobless Claims 215k 218k
11/7/2019 Continuing Claims 1680k 1690k
11/7/2019 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 61
11/7/2019 Consumer Credit $15.000b $17.901b
11/8/2019 Bloomberg Nov. United States Economic Survey
11/8/2019 Wholesale Inventories MoM -0.30% -0.30%
11/8/2019 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 0.20% 0.00%
11/8/2019 U. of Mich. Sentiment 95.5 95.5
11/8/2019 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 113.2
11/8/2019 U. of Mich. Expectations 84.2
11/8/2019 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.50%
11/8/2019 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.30%


























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