November 5, 2019 Headlines

Treasury yields are up another 4-6 bps this morning as the tone in risk market improves further. Equity markets continue to trade favorably in anticipation of a phase one U.S./China trade deal this month, with reports surfacing overnight that U.S. officials are considering (or at least debating) removing tariffs on $112 billion of Chinese imports. A separate article suggested that China is also leaning on the U.S. to reduce the 25% tariff on $250 billion of Chinese imports that went into effect last year (in addition to China’s demands that the upcoming December 15 tariffs are taken on the table entirely). If these concessions are accepted by U.S. officials, one wonders what China is willing to offer other than buying more U.S. agricultural products.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
11/4/2019	Factory Orders	-0.50%	-0.60%	-0.10%	—
11/4/2019	Factory Orders Ex Trans	—	-0.10%	0.00%	-0.20%
11/4/2019	Durable Goods Orders	-1.10%	-1.20%	-1.10%	-1.20%
11/4/2019	Durables Ex Transportation	-0.30%	-0.40%	-0.30%	-0.40%
11/4/2019	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	—	-0.60%	-0.50%	-0.60%
11/4/2019	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	-0.70%	-0.70%	—
11/5/2019	Trade Balance	-$52.4b	-$52.5b	-$54.9b	-$55.0b
11/5/2019	Markit US Services PMI	51	—	51	—
11/5/2019	Markit US Composite PMI	—	—	51.2	—
11/5/2019	JOLTS Job Openings	7063	—	7051	—
11/5/2019	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index	53.5	—	52.6	—
11/6/2019	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	0.60%	—
11/6/2019	Nonfarm Productivity	0.90%	—	2.30%	—
11/6/2019	Unit Labor Costs	2.30%	—	2.60%	—
11/7/2019	Initial Jobless Claims	215k	—	218k	—
11/7/2019	Continuing Claims	1680k	—	1690k	—
11/7/2019	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	61	—
11/7/2019	Consumer Credit	$15.000b	—	$17.901b	—
11/8/2019	Bloomberg Nov. United States Economic Survey
11/8/2019	Wholesale Inventories MoM	-0.30%	—	-0.30%	—
11/8/2019	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM	0.20%	—	0.00%	—
11/8/2019	U. of Mich. Sentiment	95.5	—	95.5	—
11/8/2019	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	—	—	113.2	—
11/8/2019	U. of Mich. Expectations	—	—	84.2	—
11/8/2019	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.50%	—
11/8/2019	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.30%	—

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