November 6, 2023 Headlines

Treasury yields are 3-5 basis points (bps) higher to start the week after a sharp, 3-day rally to end last week that sent long-end yields down 35 bps. The rally corresponded with what was perceived to be a dovish FOMC meeting on Wednesday and a slightly softer-than-expected October jobs report on Friday. Rate volatility also declined amid the risk-on move, and Agency MBS spreads tightened 10-20 bps in those three days in near uniform fashion across the coupon stack (15yr pools tightened the most). This week’s economic data calendar is far less eventful, headlined by weekly jobless claims and the University of Michigan survey later this week. However, there is a slew of Fed leader appearances scheduled for this week, including Powell on Wednesday and Thursday.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
11/7/23Trade Balance-$60.0b—-$58.3b—
11/7/23Consumer Credit$9.000b—-$15.628b—
11/8/23MBA Mortgage Applications——-2.10%—
11/8/23Wholesale Trade Sales MoM——1.80%—
11/8/23Wholesale Inventories MoM0.00%—0.00%—
11/9/23Initial Jobless Claims220k—217k—
11/9/23Continuing Claims1830k—1818k—
11/10/23U. of Mich. Sentiment63.5—63.8—
11/10/23U. of Mich. Current Conditions——70.6—
11/10/23U. of Mich. Expectations——59.3—
11/10/23U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation——4.20%—
11/10/23U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation——3.00%—
11/10/23Monthly Budget Statement-$29.5b—-$171.0b—
11/13/23NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations——3.67%—

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