Treasury yields are 3-5 basis points (bps) higher to start the week after a sharp, 3-day rally to end last week that sent long-end yields down 35 bps. The rally corresponded with what was perceived to be a dovish FOMC meeting on Wednesday and a slightly softer-than-expected October jobs report on Friday. Rate volatility also declined amid the risk-on move, and Agency MBS spreads tightened 10-20 bps in those three days in near uniform fashion across the coupon stack (15yr pools tightened the most). This week’s economic data calendar is far less eventful, headlined by weekly jobless claims and the University of Michigan survey later this week. However, there is a slew of Fed leader appearances scheduled for this week, including Powell on Wednesday and Thursday.
Chief Investment Officer
|11/8/23||MBA Mortgage Applications||—||—||-2.10%||—|
|11/8/23||Wholesale Trade Sales MoM||—||—||1.80%||—|
|11/8/23||Wholesale Inventories MoM||0.00%||—||0.00%||—|
|11/9/23||Initial Jobless Claims||220k||—||217k||—|
|11/10/23||U. of Mich. Sentiment||63.5||—||63.8||—|
|11/10/23||U. of Mich. Current Conditions||—||—||70.6||—|
|11/10/23||U. of Mich. Expectations||—||—||59.3||—|
|11/10/23||U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation||—||—||4.20%||—|
|11/10/23||U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation||—||—||3.00%||—|
|11/10/23||Monthly Budget Statement||-$29.5b||—||-$171.0b||—|
|11/13/23||NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations||—||—||3.67%||—|
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