The financial markets were relatively quiet overnight ahead of election day in the U.S.  Treasury prices are unchanged to slightly higher, and S&P 500 futures are down 6 points (-0.23%). Regarding the election, the general expectation still seems to be that Democrats will gain majority in the House, but Republicans are expected to maintain control of the Senate (and possibly pick up a seat or two). Even if a more surprising result ensues, it’s less likely that there would be a major market reaction.  On the trade front, there were a few positive articles overnight suggesting progress in an effort to have serious negotiations between U.S. and Chinese officials. There’s much build up to the G20 meeting later this month, but a more likely result (and success) would be a mutual truce on rhetoric and a willingness to conduct serious negotiations.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group


11/05Markit US Services PMI54.654.854.7
11/05Markit US Composite PMI54.954.8
11/05ISM Non-Manufacturing Index5960.361.6
11/06JOLTS Job Openings70857136
11/06Mortgage Delinquencies4.36%
11/06MBA Mortgage Foreclosures1.05%
11/07MBA Mortgage Applications-2.50%
11/07Consumer Credit$15.000b$20.078b
11/08Initial Jobless Claims213k214k
11/08Continuing Claims1634k1631k
11/08Bloomberg Consumer Comfort60.3
11/08FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)2.25%2.25%
11/08FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)2.00%2.00%
11/08Interest Rate on Excess Reserves2.20%2.20%
11/09PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%0.20%
11/09PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%
11/09PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.40%
11/09PPI Final Demand YoY2.50%2.60%
11/09PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.30%2.50%
11/09PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.90%
11/09Wholesale Inventories MoM0.30%0.30%
11/09Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.40%0.80%
11/09U. of Mich. Sentiment9898.6
11/09U. of Mich. Expectations87.289.3
11/09U. of Mich. Current Conditions114.9113.1
11/09U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.90%
11/09U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.40%