The Treasury curve is bull flattening in the wake of yesterday’s mid-term elections, with the 2-year/10-year spread 4 bps lower on the day. Asian equity markets were mixed overnight, and European markets are up more than 1% (Euro Stoxx +1.2%). S&P 500 futures are up 16 points (+0.6%). The results of yesterday’s elections were largely as expected. Democrats were able to gain control of the House, and Republicans added to their Senate majority by two seats. Corporate profit margin headwinds continue to make headlines. The Wall Street Journal has three separate articles discussing various companies with labor shortages, surging transportation costs, and supply crunches in certain commodities (copper and aluminum). This could be a major theme in 2019 as it relates to inflation, Fed policy, and corporate earnings.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior |
| 11/05 | Markit US Services PMI | 54.6 | 54.8 | 54.7 |
| 11/05 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | 54.9 | 54.8 |
| 11/05 | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index | 59 | 60.3 | 61.6 |
| 11/06 | JOLTS Job Openings | 7085 | 7009 | 7136 |
| 11/07 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -4.00% | -2.50% |
| 11/07 | Consumer Credit | $15.000b | — | $20.078b |
| 11/08 | Initial Jobless Claims | 213k | — | 214k |
| 11/08 | Continuing Claims | 1634k | — | 1631k |
| 11/08 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 60.3 |
| 11/08 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 2.25% | — | 2.25% |
| 11/08 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 2.00% | — | 2.00% |
| 11/08 | Interest Rate on Excess Reserves | 2.20% | — | 2.20% |
| 11/08 | Mortgage Delinquencies | — | — | 4.36% |
| 11/08 | MBA Mortgage Foreclosures | — | — | 1.05% |
| 11/09 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% |
| 11/09 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% |
| 11/09 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.40% |
| 11/09 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.50% | — | 2.60% |
| 11/09 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.30% | — | 2.50% |
| 11/09 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 2.90% |
| 11/09 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% |
| 11/09 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.80% |
| 11/09 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 98 | — | 98.6 |
| 11/09 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 87.2 | — | 89.3 |
| 11/09 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 114.9 | — | 113.1 |
| 11/09 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.90% |
| 11/09 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.40% |