November 8, 2019 Headlines

Treasury prices were higher overnight as foreign investors stepped up purchases of U.S. debt following yesterday’s sharp sell-off. However, in early New York trading, Treasuries have given up those gains, and yields are drifting higher again (5yr 1.75%, 10yr 1.95%). There’s no clear catalyst for this morning’s sell-off, but some market participants may be preparing for next week’s $20 billion Abbvie debt issuance. Positive developments on U.S./China trade was the primary catalyst for yesterday’s move in U.S. stocks and bonds, but a Reuters article late in the day suggested that there’s “fierce” internal opposition within the White House on rolling back tariffs to secure a phase-one trade deal. This news sparked a pull-back in yesterday’s equity rally toward the end of the session, but of course, there’s only one opinion that matters within the White House (not yet clear where the president stands on this issue).

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
11/4/2019	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	—	-0.60%	-0.50%	-0.60%
11/4/2019	Durables Ex Transportation	-0.30%	-0.40%	-0.30%	-0.40%
11/4/2019	Durable Goods Orders	-1.10%	-1.20%	-1.10%	-1.20%
11/4/2019	Factory Orders	-0.50%	-0.60%	-0.10%	—
11/4/2019	Factory Orders Ex Trans	—	-0.10%	0.00%	-0.20%
11/4/2019	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	-0.70%	-0.70%	—
11/5/2019	Trade Balance	-$52.4b	-$52.5b	-$54.9b	-$55.0b
11/5/2019	Markit US Services PMI	51	50.6	51	—
11/5/2019	Markit US Composite PMI	—	50.9	51.2	—
11/5/2019	JOLTS Job Openings	7063	7024	7051	7301
11/5/2019	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index	53.5	54.7	52.6	—
11/6/2019	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-0.10%	0.60%	—
11/6/2019	Nonfarm Productivity	0.90%	-0.30%	2.30%	2.50%
11/6/2019	Unit Labor Costs	2.20%	3.60%	2.60%	2.40%
11/7/2019	Initial Jobless Claims	215k	211k	218k	219k
11/7/2019	Continuing Claims	1682k	1689k	1690k	1692k
11/7/2019	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	59.1	61	—
11/7/2019	Consumer Credit	$15.000b	$9.513b	$17.901b	$17.842b
11/8/2019	SURVEY REPORT: U.S. Economic Forecasts in Nov. 2019
11/8/2019	Wholesale Inventories MoM	-0.30%	-0.40%	-0.30%	—
11/8/2019	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM	0.20%	0.00%	0.00%	-0.10%
11/8/2019	U. of Mich. Sentiment	95.5	95.7	95.5	—
11/8/2019	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	113.5	110.9	113.2	—
11/8/2019	U. of Mich. Expectations	85	85.9	84.2	—
11/8/2019	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	—	2.50%	2.50%	—
11/8/2019	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	2.40%	2.30%	—

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