November 8, 2022 Headlines

A mild rally in Treasuries this morning has yields down 2-3 basis points across the curve in parallel fashion. It should be a relatively quiet day with no major economic releases or Fed speakers, with some focus toward the midterm election results in the coming days. However, Thursday’s CPI report is still the primary focus for this week. In housing news, the Black Knight Home Price Index fell 0.52% in September, the third consecutive monthly decline. Annualized home price appreciation, while slower, was still double historical averages at 10.7%. Additionally, home values in the 50 largest markets remain up 16% – 66% since the beginning of the pandemic, but $1.3 trillion (-7.6%) of home equity was erased in Q3, the largest quarterly decline on record and largest percentage decline since 2009. According to Bankrate.com, the average national 30-year mortgage rate is 7.32%, up from 3.07% a year ago.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
11/8/2022 NFIB Small Business Optimism 91.4 91.3 92.1
11/9/2022 MBA Mortgage Applications -0.50%
11/9/2022 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 0.50% 0.10%
11/9/2022 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.80% 0.80%
11/10/2022 CPI MoM 0.60% 0.40%
11/10/2022 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.50% 0.60%
11/10/2022 CPI YoY 7.90% 8.20%
11/10/2022 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 6.50% 6.60%
11/10/2022 CPI Index NSA 298.488 296.808
11/10/2022 CPI Core Index SA 300.094 298.66
11/10/2022 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY -3.00%
11/10/2022 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY -3.80%
11/10/2022 Initial Jobless Claims 220k 217k
11/10/2022 Continuing Claims 1487k 1485k
11/10/2022 Monthly Budget Statement -$92.5b -$429.7b
11/11/2022 U. of Mich. Sentiment 59.5 59.9
11/11/2022 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 63.5 65.6
11/11/2022 U. of Mich. Expectations 55 56.2
11/11/2022 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 5.10% 5.00%
11/11/2022 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.90% 2.90%
11/15/2022 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 7.20%
11/15/2022 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.50% 0.40%
11/15/2022 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.40% 0.30%
11/15/2022 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.40% 0.40%
11/15/2022 Empire Manufacturing -5 -9.1
11/15/2022 PPI Final Demand YoY 8.40% 8.50%
11/15/2022 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 5.60%
11/15/2022 Bloomberg Nov. United States Economic Survey

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