November 8, 2022 Headlines

A mild rally in Treasuries this morning has yields down 2-3 basis points across the curve in parallel fashion. It should be a relatively quiet day with no major economic releases or Fed speakers, with some focus toward the midterm election results in the coming days. However, Thursday’s CPI report is still the primary focus for this week. In housing news, the Black Knight Home Price Index fell 0.52% in September, the third consecutive monthly decline. Annualized home price appreciation, while slower, was still double historical averages at 10.7%. Additionally, home values in the 50 largest markets remain up 16% – 66% since the beginning of the pandemic, but $1.3 trillion (-7.6%) of home equity was erased in Q3, the largest quarterly decline on record and largest percentage decline since 2009. According to Bankrate.com, the average national 30-year mortgage rate is 7.32%, up from 3.07% a year ago.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
11/8/2022	NFIB Small Business Optimism	91.4	91.3	92.1	—
11/9/2022	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	-0.50%	—
11/9/2022	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM	0.50%	—	0.10%	—
11/9/2022	Wholesale Inventories MoM	0.80%	—	0.80%	—
11/10/2022	CPI MoM	0.60%	—	0.40%	—
11/10/2022	CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.50%	—	0.60%	—
11/10/2022	CPI YoY	7.90%	—	8.20%	—
11/10/2022	CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	6.50%	—	6.60%	—
11/10/2022	CPI Index NSA	298.488	—	296.808	—
11/10/2022	CPI Core Index SA	300.094	—	298.66	—
11/10/2022	Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY	—	—	-3.00%	—
11/10/2022	Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY	—	—	-3.80%	—
11/10/2022	Initial Jobless Claims	220k	—	217k	—
11/10/2022	Continuing Claims	1487k	—	1485k	—
11/10/2022	Monthly Budget Statement	-$92.5b	—	-$429.7b	—
11/11/2022	U. of Mich. Sentiment	59.5	—	59.9	—
11/11/2022	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	63.5	—	65.6	—
11/11/2022	U. of Mich. Expectations	55	—	56.2	—
11/11/2022	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	5.10%	—	5.00%	—
11/11/2022	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	2.90%	—	2.90%	—
11/15/2022	PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	—	—	7.20%	—
11/15/2022	PPI Final Demand MoM	0.50%	—	0.40%	—
11/15/2022	PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.40%	—	0.30%	—
11/15/2022	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM	0.40%	—	0.40%	—
11/15/2022	Empire Manufacturing	-5	—	-9.1	—
11/15/2022	PPI Final Demand YoY	8.40%	—	8.50%	—
11/15/2022	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY	—	—	5.60%	—
11/15/2022	Bloomberg Nov. United States Economic Survey

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