November 8, 2023 Headlines

The Treasury curve is flatter this morning, with front-end yields slightly higher on somewhat hawkish comments from ECB and Fed officials. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said yesterday that the Fed will likely need to raise the fed funds rate again to suppress inflation risks, and several other Fed leaders will be speaking today, including Fed Chair Powell this morning. The MBA mortgage applications index rose 2.5% last week, including a 3% increase in purchase applications. Activity was still modest considering a 25 basis point decline in the average 30-year conventional mortgage rate to 7.61% over the week, according to the MBA survey. It was the biggest 1-week decline in the survey rate in more than a year, but at the same time, the current rate is still nearly 50 bps higher than it was a year ago.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
11/8/2023MBA Mortgage Applications—2.50%-2.10%—
11/8/2023Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.90%—1.80%—
11/8/2023Wholesale Inventories MoM0.00%—0.00%—
11/9/2023Initial Jobless Claims219k—217k—
11/9/2023Continuing Claims1825k—1818k—
11/10/2023U. of Mich. Sentiment63.5—63.8—
11/10/2023U. of Mich. Current Conditions70—70.6—
11/10/2023U. of Mich. Expectations61—59.3—
11/10/2023U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.90%—4.20%—
11/10/2023U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.90%—3.00%—
11/13/2023NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations——3.67%—
11/13/2023Monthly Budget Statement-$50.0b—-$171.0b—
11/14/2023NFIB Small Business Optimism——90.8—
11/14/2023Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY——-0.10%0.00%
11/14/2023CPI MoM0.10%—0.40%—
11/14/2023CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%—0.30%—
11/14/2023CPI YoY——3.70%—
11/14/2023CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY——4.10%—
11/14/2023CPI Index NSA307.806—307.789—
11/14/2023CPI Core Index SA——310.661—
11/14/2023Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY——0.50%—
11/15/2023MBA Mortgage Applications——2.50%—
11/15/2023Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.40%—0.70%—
11/15/2023Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM-0.30%—0.60%—
11/15/2023Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas——0.60%—
11/15/2023Retail Sales Control Group0.10%—0.60%—
11/15/2023PPI Final Demand MoM0.10%—0.50%—
11/15/2023PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%—0.30%—
11/15/2023PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM——0.20%—
11/15/2023PPI Final Demand YoY——2.20%—
11/15/2023PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY——2.70%—
11/15/2023PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY——2.80%—
11/15/2023Empire Manufacturing-2—-4.6—
11/15/2023Business Inventories0.40%—0.40%—

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