European and Asian equity markets rallied overnight, but that move doesn’t appear to be making its way to the US as S&P futures are pointing to a lower open this morning. The Treasury curve is bull flattening this morning, with the 10-year down 2 bps while the 2-year is essentially unchanged. The economic calendar is light today, with initial jobless claims and the FOMC’s rate decision being the two main focal points.

The labor market continues to hum right along, with the jobless claims number coming in right at expectations of 214,000 which is a 1,000 decrease from last week’s revised reading. The market will be watching today’s Fed meeting, not for a rate decision or any policy action, as neither are expected to change; but to see if the committee mentions a recent slowdown in business and residential investment. Additionally, the minutes from this meeting, which will be released in three weeks, could provide insight into how the FOMC views the terminal balance sheet size.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group


Date EventSurveyActualPrior
11/05Markit US Services PMI54.654.854.7
11/05Markit US Composite PMI54.954.8
11/05ISM Non-Manufacturing Index5960.361.6
11/06JOLTS Job Openings708570097136
11/07MBA Mortgage Applications-4.00%-2.50%
11/07Consumer Credit$15.000b$10.923b$20.078b
11/08Initial Jobless Claims214k214k214k
11/08Continuing Claims1634k1623k1631k
11/08Bloomberg Consumer Comfort60.3
11/08Mortgage Delinquencies4.36%
11/08MBA Mortgage Foreclosures1.05%
11/08FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)2.25%2.25%
11/08FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)2.00%2.00%
11/08Interest Rate on Excess Reserves2.20%2.20%
11/09PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%0.20%
11/09PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%
11/09PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.40%
11/09PPI Final Demand YoY2.50%2.60%
11/09PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.30%2.50%
11/09PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.90%
11/09Wholesale Inventories MoM0.30%0.30%
11/09Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.40%0.80%
11/09U. of Mich. Sentiment9898.6
11/09U. of Mich. Expectations87.289.3
11/09U. of Mich. Current Conditions114.9113.1
11/09U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.90%
11/09U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.40%