November 9, 2021 Headlines

Speculation of a change in Fed leadership and a Fed warning about potential contagion from China’s property market woes are sparking a bid for Treasuries to start the day. As of 8:15am ET, yields are 1-3 basis points lower across the curve, and S&P 500 futures are down 0.11%. President Biden interviewed Fed Governor Lael Brainard to potentially replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair when his term expires in February. Brainard is considered more dovish than Powell and has support from some progressive leaders in Congress. Powell is still considered the front runner for the post, and Brainard could also be nominated to replace Randall Quarles as Vice Chair of Supervision, overseeing Fed bank regulation efforts.

The Fed’s semi-annual Financial Stability Report warned that China’s real estate sector woes “posed some risk to the US financial system” due to “the size of China’s economy and financial system.” During the September FOMC press conference, Powell was more dismissive of the Evergrande situation as being “very particular” to China.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
11/09/21NFIB Small Business Optimism99.598.299.1
11/09/21PPI Final Demand MoM0.60%0.60%0.50%
11/09/21PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.50%0.40%0.20%
11/09/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%0.40%0.10%
11/09/21PPI Final Demand YoY8.60%8.60%8.60%
11/09/21PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY6.80%6.80%6.80%
11/09/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY6.20%6.20%5.90%
11/10/21MBA Mortgage Applications-3.30%
11/10/21Initial Jobless Claims260k269k
11/10/21Continuing Claims2050k2105k
11/10/21CPI MoM0.60%0.40%
11/10/21CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.40%0.20%
11/10/21CPI YoY5.90%5.40%
11/10/21CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY4.30%4.00%
11/10/21CPI Index NSA275.764274.31
11/10/21CPI Core Index SA280.991280.017
11/10/21Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-0.80%
11/10/21Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-0.80%
11/10/21Langer Consumer Comfort49.2
11/10/21Wholesale Inventories MoM1.10%1.10%
11/10/21Wholesale Trade Sales MoM-1.10%
11/10/21Monthly Budget Statement-$183.0b-$61.5b
11/10/21-11/13/21Mortgage Delinquencies5.47%
11/10/21-11/13/21MBA Mortgage Foreclosures0.51%
11/12/21Bloomberg Nov. United States Economic Survey
11/12/21JOLTS Job Openings10300k10439k
11/12/21U. of Mich. Sentiment72.571.7
11/12/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions7877.7
11/12/21U. of Mich. Expectations6967.9
11/12/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.90%4.80%
11/12/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.90%

 

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