November 9, 2022 Headlines

It’s another quiet start for financial markets ahead of tomorrow’s October CPI report. Treasury yields are up 1-2 basis points, and S&P 500 futures are down 0.5% currently (8:51am ET). Core CPI is expected to have moderated to a still-high 0.5% m/m rate last month, likely helped by a decline in used auto prices according to some economists. Actual results that are at or below expectations would likely lead to markets more firmly pricing for a 50 basis point rate hike at the December meeting (as opposed to another 75 bp hike), but there will still be another CPI report and monthly jobs report released before the December 14 FOMC meeting. In a stark reversal from the prior year, a Bloomberg article highlights an overabundance of inventory by U.S. retailers heading into the holiday shopping season this year. Fearful of supply-chain shortages, major retailers ordered greater quantities earlier than usual, but waning consumer demand and poor forecasting is leaving these companies with a glut of goods and forced discounting of prices.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
11/9/2022	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-0.10%	-0.50%	—
11/9/2022	Wholesale Inventories MoM	0.80%	—	0.80%	—
11/9/2022	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM	0.50%	—	0.10%	—
11/10/2022	CPI MoM	0.60%	—	0.40%	—
11/10/2022	CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.50%	—	0.60%	—
11/10/2022	CPI YoY	7.90%	—	8.20%	—
11/10/2022	CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	6.50%	—	6.60%	—
11/10/2022	CPI Index NSA	298.488	—	296.808	—
11/10/2022	CPI Core Index SA	300.094	—	298.66	—
11/10/2022	Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY	—	—	-3.00%	—
11/10/2022	Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY	—	—	-3.80%	—
11/10/2022	Initial Jobless Claims	220k	—	217k	—
11/10/2022	Continuing Claims	1487k	—	1485k	—
11/10/2022	Monthly Budget Statement	-$92.5b	—	-$429.7b	—
11/11/2022	U. of Mich. Sentiment	59.5	—	59.9	—
11/11/2022	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	63.5	—	65.6	—
11/11/2022	U. of Mich. Expectations	55	—	56.2	—
11/11/2022	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	5.10%	—	5.00%	—
11/11/2022	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	2.90%	—	2.90%	—
11/15/2022	PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	—	—	7.20%	—
11/15/2022	PPI Final Demand MoM	0.50%	—	0.40%	—
11/15/2022	PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.40%	—	0.30%	—
11/15/2022	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM	0.40%	—	0.40%	—
11/15/2022	Empire Manufacturing	-5	—	-9.1	—
11/15/2022	PPI Final Demand YoY	8.40%	—	8.50%	—
11/15/2022	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY	—	—	5.60%	—
11/15/2022	Bloomberg Nov. United States Economic Survey
11/16/2022	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	-0.10%	—
11/16/2022	Retail Sales Advance MoM	1.10%	—	0.00%	—
11/16/2022	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	0.50%	—	0.10%	—
11/16/2022	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas	0.20%	—	0.30%	—
11/16/2022	Retail Sales Control Group	0.30%	—	0.40%	—
11/16/2022	Import Price Index MoM	-0.50%	—	-1.20%	—
11/16/2022	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	—	—	-0.50%	—
11/16/2022	Import Price Index YoY	—	—	6.00%	—
11/16/2022	Export Price Index MoM	-0.50%	—	-0.80%	—
11/16/2022	Export Price Index YoY	—	—	9.50%	—
11/16/2022	Industrial Production MoM	0.10%	—	0.40%	—
11/16/2022	Capacity Utilization	80.40%	—	80.30%	—
11/16/2022	Manufacturing (SIC) Production	—	—	0.40%	—
11/16/2022	Business Inventories	0.50%	—	0.80%	—
11/16/2022	NAHB Housing Market Index	—	—	38	—
11/16/2022	Net Long-term TIC Flows	—	—	$197.9b	—
11/16/2022	Total Net TIC Flows	—	—	$275.6b	—

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