November 9, 2022 Headlines

It’s another quiet start for financial markets ahead of tomorrow’s October CPI report. Treasury yields are up 1-2 basis points, and S&P 500 futures are down 0.5% currently (8:51am ET). Core CPI is expected to have moderated to a still-high 0.5% m/m rate last month, likely helped by a decline in used auto prices according to some economists. Actual results that are at or below expectations would likely lead to markets more firmly pricing for a 50 basis point rate hike at the December meeting (as opposed to another 75 bp hike), but there will still be another CPI report and monthly jobs report released before the December 14 FOMC meeting. In a stark reversal from the prior year, a Bloomberg article highlights an overabundance of inventory by U.S. retailers heading into the holiday shopping season this year. Fearful of supply-chain shortages, major retailers ordered greater quantities earlier than usual, but waning consumer demand and poor forecasting is leaving these companies with a glut of goods and forced discounting of prices.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

11/9/2022MBA Mortgage Applications-0.10%-0.50%
11/9/2022Wholesale Inventories MoM0.80%0.80%
11/9/2022Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.50%0.10%
11/10/2022CPI MoM0.60%0.40%
11/10/2022CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.50%0.60%
11/10/2022CPI YoY7.90%8.20%
11/10/2022CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY6.50%6.60%
11/10/2022CPI Index NSA298.488296.808
11/10/2022CPI Core Index SA300.094298.66
11/10/2022Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-3.00%
11/10/2022Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-3.80%
11/10/2022Initial Jobless Claims220k217k
11/10/2022Continuing Claims1487k1485k
11/10/2022Monthly Budget Statement-$92.5b-$429.7b
11/11/2022U. of Mich. Sentiment59.559.9
11/11/2022U. of Mich. Current Conditions63.565.6
11/11/2022U. of Mich. Expectations5556.2
11/11/2022U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation5.10%5.00%
11/11/2022U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.90%2.90%
11/15/2022PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY7.20%
11/15/2022PPI Final Demand MoM0.50%0.40%
11/15/2022PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.40%0.30%
11/15/2022PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.40%0.40%
11/15/2022Empire Manufacturing-5-9.1
11/15/2022PPI Final Demand YoY8.40%8.50%
11/15/2022PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY5.60%
11/15/2022Bloomberg Nov. United States Economic Survey
11/16/2022MBA Mortgage Applications-0.10%
11/16/2022Retail Sales Advance MoM1.10%0.00%
11/16/2022Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.50%0.10%
11/16/2022Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.20%0.30%
11/16/2022Retail Sales Control Group0.30%0.40%
11/16/2022Import Price Index MoM-0.50%-1.20%
11/16/2022Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.50%
11/16/2022Import Price Index YoY6.00%
11/16/2022Export Price Index MoM-0.50%-0.80%
11/16/2022Export Price Index YoY9.50%
11/16/2022Industrial Production MoM0.10%0.40%
11/16/2022Capacity Utilization80.40%80.30%
11/16/2022Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.40%
11/16/2022Business Inventories0.50%0.80%
11/16/2022NAHB Housing Market Index38
11/16/2022Net Long-term TIC Flows$197.9b
11/16/2022Total Net TIC Flows$275.6b


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